What to Expect Between Election Day and Inauguration

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What to Expect Between Election Day and Inauguration

As we edge closer to Election Day, many Americans are likely eager for the end of a long, and sometimes contentious, campaign season. But if history has taught us anything, the day we cast our ballots might only be the beginning of a much longer and more complicated process. The next several weeks could be filled with uncertainty, particularly if the race turns out to be as close as many expect.

1. Certainty Amidst the Uncertainty

Election Day, November 5, is merely the first step in a multi-week journey. Each state is responsible for certifying its results, a process that often stretches well into mid-November and beyond. Certification isn't just about counting votes; it involves ensuring that everything has been conducted fairly and accurately. This step-by-step verification process can take up to five weeks.

After the states have finalized their results, the Electoral College steps in. This body of 538 electors casts their votes according to the popular vote in each state, aiming to reach a decisive 270-vote majority. This vote usually happens in mid-December, but if there are disputes—whether about ballot counts, recounts, or certifications—those have to be resolved beforehand. Any unresolved disputes might even send the decision to the U.S. House of Representatives. 

Despite the many steps and potential delays, the country will have a president by Inauguration Day on January 20, and the process, while often complex, typically concludes with a peaceful transfer of power.

2. Anticipate a Flurry of Legal Challenges

Once the ballots are cast, a wave of legal disputes can emerge, particularly if the election results are tight. This isn't new, especially in recent cycles where courtrooms have played a key role in election results. There are often numerous legal challenges concerning vote counts, recount requests, and election procedures.

These disputes may generate headline after headline, and it's wise to be prepared for a public spectacle as both parties engage in this legal chess game. This period between Election Day and January 20 can feel like a political minefield, with every development scrutinized and debated.

3. Counting Mail-in Ballots Takes Time

Mail-in voting has become an increasingly popular choice, and it's not going away. Although fewer people may be voting by mail compared to the height of the pandemic in 2020, it's still a significant factor. This means that, for several key states, the results may not be fully counted by the end of Election Day. 

The delay is particularly noticeable in states that only begin processing mail-in ballots on Election Day. This could lead to a scenario where one candidate appears to be ahead on Election Night, only for the numbers to shift in the days that follow. It's a reminder that patience is crucial as every valid vote is counted.

In some extreme cases, the disputes over ballots and counting could escalate to the U.S. Supreme Court, as seen in the 2000 election. Such events, while rare, underscore the importance of thorough and accurate vote counting.

4. Recounts Are Unusual and Seldom Change Results

While recounts often capture public attention, they are relatively rare and almost never shift the outcome of an election. A tiny fraction of races see recounts, and even fewer result in a different winner. Recounts are typically reserved for very close races where the initial margin of victory is razor-thin. If history is any guide, a recount might provide some reassurance about accuracy, but it likely won't alter the end result.

5. Markets Tend to Weather the Storm

For investors, it's crucial to keep a broad perspective during the election season. Historically, the specific outcome of presidential elections has had a limited long-term impact on the financial markets. While it's true that markets might experience heightened volatility in the immediate aftermath of a hotly contested election, they've generally shown resilience over time, regardless of the political landscape.

For long-term investors, the lesson is clear: patience and a focus on long-term goals are likely to serve better than reacting to short-term political turbulence. The certainty of having a final election result tends to stabilize markets, no matter who ends up in the White House.

And so…

The period between Election Day and Inauguration Day can be filled with drama, uncertainty, and unexpected twists. While it's natural to want immediate answers, it's important to respect the process that has guided the country for centuries. Patience, trust in the system, and a long-term perspective will help navigate this transitional phase, no matter how complicated it may appear.

So, as we move through the election season, it's good to remember that the democratic process takes time—and that's exactly as it should be.

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