The Size of Ocala
The Size of Ocala
Drones, Russia's losses, and what one month in Ukraine looks like next to ten years in Afghanistan
Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF, CLU, ChFC, RFC
Founder, Truesdell Wealth, Inc.
352-612-1000
Truesdell Wealth
Truesdell Consulting
Truesdell Law
Truesdell Insurance
Truesdell Travel
Truesdell.Net
A War We All Remember
Most Americans who came of age during the Cold War remember the Soviet war in Afghanistan. It ran from 1979 to 1989, it was on the evening news for most of that decade, and it is widely remembered as one of the wars that helped break the Soviet Union. For those of us now in or near retirement, it makes a useful yardstick for what is happening in Ukraine today.
Fifteen Thousand in Ten Years
Let's go back to Afghanistan first. In nearly ten years of fighting, the Soviet Union lost roughly fifteen thousand soldiers killed, by its own official count. That was enough to turn the Soviet public against the war and to help bring down a superpower.
Russia's Losses Since 2022
Now let's look at Ukraine. Ukraine's General Staff reported today, November 10, that Russia has taken about one million six hundred eleven thousand casualties since the full invasion began in February 2022. Casualties means killed, wounded, and captured, and that figure is Ukraine's estimate. For deaths alone, two independent news organizations, Mediazona and the Russian service of the BBC, have confirmed more than two hundred forty-two thousand Russian soldiers killed, by name, through the end of August. They built that count from obituaries and public records, and they say the real number is likely significantly higher. Even that conservative count is about sixteen times what the Soviet Union lost in Afghanistan.
Three Florida Cities
Here's something most people probably haven't seen. The Census Bureau estimated Ocala's population at about seventy thousand last year. Add Gainesville, home of the University of Florida, at about one hundred forty-nine thousand, and Key West at about twenty-five thousand. Picture every man, woman, and child in all three cities. Together they come to about two hundred forty-four thousand people, roughly the number of Russian soldiers whose deaths have been confirmed by name.
The Size of Philadelphia
Now take the larger number. Counting the wounded and captured along with the dead, Ukraine's General Staff put Russia's casualties at about one million six hundred eleven thousand. Rounding down to stay on the low side, that is more than one and a half million people. That is equal to every single man, woman, and child in Philadelphia, or in San Antonio, and nearly everyone in Phoenix, the fifth, sixth, and seventh largest cities in the United States.
Nearly Ocala in a Month
The pace this fall is what stands out. Ukraine reported fifty-four thousand four hundred Russian casualties in October, and November opened at more than two thousand a day, including a record of about two thousand five hundred on November 1. At that rate, Russia will lose about sixty thousand soldiers this month to death and wounds. That is close to the entire population of Ocala, gone from the Russian army in thirty days. On that single record day, Russia's casualties came to about a sixth of the Soviet death toll for the whole decade in Afghanistan.
The Answer Is Drones
So what changed? The answer is drones. Euromaidan Press reported in October that drones now account for about ninety-six percent of Russia's battlefield losses. The commander of Ukraine's drone forces reported that his units by themselves struck nearly sixty-five thousand targets in October and killed about sixteen thousand eight hundred Russian soldiers.
A Different Battlefield
Think of how much the battlefield has changed. In Afghanistan, Soviet soldiers feared ambushes in the mountain passes and the shoulder-fired missiles that brought down their helicopters. Today a Russian soldier can be watched from above for hours by a small camera drone flown by a Ukrainian operator miles away. The Wall Street Journal reported in June that commercial satellite images now reach Ukrainian drone crews in close to real time, cutting the time between spotting a target and hitting it from hours to minutes. Ukraine has also fielded a carrier drone called the KARA, at about ninety-nine hundred dollars apiece, that flies smaller attack drones closer to the front.
Every Strike on Camera
Most of those strikes are filmed from launch to impact and logged in Ukraine's battlefield database, called Delta, which is why Ukraine's counts carry weight, even though no outside body has confirmed this fall's figures.
More Men, Not Better Tactics
Russia's answer has been more men, not better tactics. United24 Media reported that some recruits receive as little as five days of training, and the director of the CIA said in July that new Russian recruits survive an estimated twenty to thirty minutes once they are sent into an assault. A country can buy tanks with money. It cannot keep replacing a city the size of Ocala every month with volunteers, and that was the point of the goal Ukraine set in January, fifty thousand Russian casualties a month. It has now passed that mark.
Why It Matters to Retirees
Why should retirees in Florida care? The outcome shapes energy prices, defense budgets, and the markets our retirement income depends on. It also confirms what I have said for years. Russia is not to be trusted, the United States cannot be the world's policeman, and Europe has to step up and carry its share of its own defense.
The Change in Washington
Now let's look at what is changing here at home. In the midterm elections on November 3, Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, and the new Congress takes its seats in January. At the same time, many Republicans want this country out of foreign wars of every kind. On the other side of the aisle, there is a growing anti-Musk sentiment among Democrats. That matters more than most people realize, because Elon Musk's company, SpaceX, runs Starlink, a network of satellites that provides internet service almost anywhere on earth. By Ukraine's own account, nearly all of its battlefield communications run over Starlink, from commanders' orders to the video links that guide its drones to their targets. Earlier this year, SpaceX also shut Russian forces out of the network by limiting service in the war zone to registered Ukrainian terminals.
If Russia Wins
Here's where it gets serious. If politics at home weakens either support for Ukraine or the satellite network its defense runs on, and Russia wins, the odds of a bloodbath among Ukrainian civilians, even an extermination, are very high. We have already seen what Russian occupation looks like. In Bucha, a suburb of Kyiv, Ukrainian authorities reported hundreds of civilians killed during the Russian occupation in the spring of 2022. A Russian victory would lead to one of two things. Either the West surrenders and accepts that borders can be redrawn by force, or the West escalates with force multipliers, meaning the weapons and technology that make a smaller force far more powerful, and at the end of that road is the risk of nuclear war.
Help Without American Soldiers
That is why an inexpensive drone and an American satellite link matter so much. They let Ukraine defend itself without American soldiers, which is exactly the kind of help a country that refuses to be the world's policeman can afford to give.
The Idiocracy
The Idiocracy is believing that sheer numbers of men still win a war against a country that has learned to fight with machines.
The Side That Learns
My friends, the Soviet Union walked away from Afghanistan after fifteen thousand dead. Russia is now losing nearly the population of Ocala every month, to a smaller country that adapted faster and kept count. The lesson for nations, businesses, and households alike is that the side that learns wins, and this country has always known how to learn.
Think about it.
Source Sheet
Soviet deaths in Afghanistan, roughly fifteen thousand, 1979 to 1989: official Soviet figure, about 14,450, widely cited.
Russian casualties since February 24, 2022, about 1,611,600 (killed, wounded, captured): Ukraine's General Staff, as reported by the Kyiv Independent, November 10, 2026. Ukrainian estimate.
Confirmed Russian dead by name, 242,747 through August 27, 2026: Mediazona and BBC Russian service, as reported by the Kyiv Independent, August 31, 2026. They say the true total is likely significantly higher.
Sixteen times the Afghanistan toll: 242,747 divided by roughly 15,000, about 16.
Ocala population about 70,000: U.S. Census Bureau estimate for July 1, 2024 (70,251), via citypopulation.de; 2020 Census count 63,678.
Gainesville population about 149,000: U.S. Census Bureau estimate for July 1, 2024 (148,720), via citypopulation.de.
Key West population about 25,000: U.S. Census Bureau estimate for July 1, 2024 (25,240), via citypopulation.de.
Three cities combined: 70,251 + 148,720 + 25,240 = 244,211, against 242,747 confirmed dead.
Philadelphia 1,574,281; San Antonio 1,548,422; Phoenix 1,665,481: U.S. Census Bureau estimates for July 1, 2025, as reported by the Dallas Express. Ranked fifth (Phoenix), sixth (Philadelphia) and seventh (San Antonio). The 1,611,600 casualty figure exceeds Philadelphia and San Antonio and is about 54,000 short of Phoenix.
October casualties, 54,400: Ukrainian figures. November 1 record, about 2,500, and more than 2,000 a day to open November: Ukraine's General Staff and RBC-Ukraine. November 10 report showed 2,220 for the prior day.
Sixty thousand projection: about 2,000 a day for thirty days. Close to Ocala's population of about 70,000.
One day equal to about a sixth of the Afghanistan death toll: 2,500 against roughly 15,000. Casualties include wounded and captured; the Afghanistan figure is deaths alone.
Drones about ninety-six percent of Russian battlefield losses: Euromaidan Press, October 11, 2026.
Unmanned Systems Forces, 64,807 targets and 16,796 Russian soldiers killed in October: commander Robert Brovdi.
Near-real-time satellite data to drone crews: The Wall Street Journal, June 2026.
KARA carrier drone, about $9,900: Euromaidan Press.
Delta battlefield database: Ukrainian armed forces, as described in the supplied transcript.
Five days of training: United24 Media, February 2026. Twenty to thirty minutes survival: CIA Director John Ratcliffe, July 2026.
Fifty thousand a month goal: Mykhailo Fedorov, January 2026.
Soviet fear of mountain ambushes and shoulder-fired missiles in Afghanistan: general historical record (Stinger missiles supplied to the mujahideen from 1986).
Democrats won control of the House and Senate in the November 3, 2026 midterms: CBS News projections (at least 54 Senate seats; House estimate 251 to 268; Mississippi and Alaska Senate races still open as of the report). Check final counts before publishing.
Republicans wanting out of foreign wars; growing anti-Musk sentiment among Democrats: the writer's own observation. Polls through 2025 (Harvard CAPS/Harris, YouGov/Economist) showed Musk underwater overall.
Starlink carries nearly all of Ukraine's command, unit-to-unit and drone data links: Ukrainian Stratcom statement, as reported by The War Zone, February 6, 2026 (The War Zone noted it could not independently verify the claim).
SpaceX limited Starlink in and around Ukraine to registered ("white list") terminals and cut off unauthorized Russian use: The War Zone, February 2026; also reported by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.
Drones, Russia's losses, and what one month in Ukraine looks like next to ten years in Afghanistan
Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF, CLU, ChFC, RFC
Founder, Truesdell Wealth, Inc.
352-612-1000
Truesdell Wealth
Truesdell Consulting
Truesdell Law
Truesdell Insurance
Truesdell Travel
Truesdell.Net
A War We All Remember
Most Americans who came of age during the Cold War remember the Soviet war in Afghanistan. It ran from 1979 to 1989, it was on the evening news for most of that decade, and it is widely remembered as one of the wars that helped break the Soviet Union. For those of us now in or near retirement, it makes a useful yardstick for what is happening in Ukraine today.
Fifteen Thousand in Ten Years
Let's go back to Afghanistan first. In nearly ten years of fighting, the Soviet Union lost roughly fifteen thousand soldiers killed, by its own official count. That was enough to turn the Soviet public against the war and to help bring down a superpower.
Russia's Losses Since 2022
Now let's look at Ukraine. Ukraine's General Staff reported today, November 10, that Russia has taken about one million six hundred eleven thousand casualties since the full invasion began in February 2022. Casualties means killed, wounded, and captured, and that figure is Ukraine's estimate. For deaths alone, two independent news organizations, Mediazona and the Russian service of the BBC, have confirmed more than two hundred forty-two thousand Russian soldiers killed, by name, through the end of August. They built that count from obituaries and public records, and they say the real number is likely significantly higher. Even that conservative count is about sixteen times what the Soviet Union lost in Afghanistan.
Three Florida Cities
Here's something most people probably haven't seen. The Census Bureau estimated Ocala's population at about seventy thousand last year. Add Gainesville, home of the University of Florida, at about one hundred forty-nine thousand, and Key West at about twenty-five thousand. Picture every man, woman, and child in all three cities. Together they come to about two hundred forty-four thousand people, roughly the number of Russian soldiers whose deaths have been confirmed by name.
The Size of Philadelphia
Now take the larger number. Counting the wounded and captured along with the dead, Ukraine's General Staff put Russia's casualties at about one million six hundred eleven thousand. Rounding down to stay on the low side, that is more than one and a half million people. That is equal to every single man, woman, and child in Philadelphia, or in San Antonio, and nearly everyone in Phoenix, the fifth, sixth, and seventh largest cities in the United States.
Nearly Ocala in a Month
The pace this fall is what stands out. Ukraine reported fifty-four thousand four hundred Russian casualties in October, and November opened at more than two thousand a day, including a record of about two thousand five hundred on November 1. At that rate, Russia will lose about sixty thousand soldiers this month to death and wounds. That is close to the entire population of Ocala, gone from the Russian army in thirty days. On that single record day, Russia's casualties came to about a sixth of the Soviet death toll for the whole decade in Afghanistan.
The Answer Is Drones
So what changed? The answer is drones. Euromaidan Press reported in October that drones now account for about ninety-six percent of Russia's battlefield losses. The commander of Ukraine's drone forces reported that his units by themselves struck nearly sixty-five thousand targets in October and killed about sixteen thousand eight hundred Russian soldiers.
A Different Battlefield
Think of how much the battlefield has changed. In Afghanistan, Soviet soldiers feared ambushes in the mountain passes and the shoulder-fired missiles that brought down their helicopters. Today a Russian soldier can be watched from above for hours by a small camera drone flown by a Ukrainian operator miles away. The Wall Street Journal reported in June that commercial satellite images now reach Ukrainian drone crews in close to real time, cutting the time between spotting a target and hitting it from hours to minutes. Ukraine has also fielded a carrier drone called the KARA, at about ninety-nine hundred dollars apiece, that flies smaller attack drones closer to the front.
Every Strike on Camera
Most of those strikes are filmed from launch to impact and logged in Ukraine's battlefield database, called Delta, which is why Ukraine's counts carry weight, even though no outside body has confirmed this fall's figures.
More Men, Not Better Tactics
Russia's answer has been more men, not better tactics. United24 Media reported that some recruits receive as little as five days of training, and the director of the CIA said in July that new Russian recruits survive an estimated twenty to thirty minutes once they are sent into an assault. A country can buy tanks with money. It cannot keep replacing a city the size of Ocala every month with volunteers, and that was the point of the goal Ukraine set in January, fifty thousand Russian casualties a month. It has now passed that mark.
Why It Matters to Retirees
Why should retirees in Florida care? The outcome shapes energy prices, defense budgets, and the markets our retirement income depends on. It also confirms what I have said for years. Russia is not to be trusted, the United States cannot be the world's policeman, and Europe has to step up and carry its share of its own defense.
The Change in Washington
Now let's look at what is changing here at home. In the midterm elections on November 3, Democrats won control of both the House and the Senate, and the new Congress takes its seats in January. At the same time, many Republicans want this country out of foreign wars of every kind. On the other side of the aisle, there is a growing anti-Musk sentiment among Democrats. That matters more than most people realize, because Elon Musk's company, SpaceX, runs Starlink, a network of satellites that provides internet service almost anywhere on earth. By Ukraine's own account, nearly all of its battlefield communications run over Starlink, from commanders' orders to the video links that guide its drones to their targets. Earlier this year, SpaceX also shut Russian forces out of the network by limiting service in the war zone to registered Ukrainian terminals.
If Russia Wins
Here's where it gets serious. If politics at home weakens either support for Ukraine or the satellite network its defense runs on, and Russia wins, the odds of a bloodbath among Ukrainian civilians, even an extermination, are very high. We have already seen what Russian occupation looks like. In Bucha, a suburb of Kyiv, Ukrainian authorities reported hundreds of civilians killed during the Russian occupation in the spring of 2022. A Russian victory would lead to one of two things. Either the West surrenders and accepts that borders can be redrawn by force, or the West escalates with force multipliers, meaning the weapons and technology that make a smaller force far more powerful, and at the end of that road is the risk of nuclear war.
Help Without American Soldiers
That is why an inexpensive drone and an American satellite link matter so much. They let Ukraine defend itself without American soldiers, which is exactly the kind of help a country that refuses to be the world's policeman can afford to give.
The Idiocracy
The Idiocracy is believing that sheer numbers of men still win a war against a country that has learned to fight with machines.
The Side That Learns
My friends, the Soviet Union walked away from Afghanistan after fifteen thousand dead. Russia is now losing nearly the population of Ocala every month, to a smaller country that adapted faster and kept count. The lesson for nations, businesses, and households alike is that the side that learns wins, and this country has always known how to learn.
Think about it.
Source Sheet
Soviet deaths in Afghanistan, roughly fifteen thousand, 1979 to 1989: official Soviet figure, about 14,450, widely cited.
Russian casualties since February 24, 2022, about 1,611,600 (killed, wounded, captured): Ukraine's General Staff, as reported by the Kyiv Independent, November 10, 2026. Ukrainian estimate.
Confirmed Russian dead by name, 242,747 through August 27, 2026: Mediazona and BBC Russian service, as reported by the Kyiv Independent, August 31, 2026. They say the true total is likely significantly higher.
Sixteen times the Afghanistan toll: 242,747 divided by roughly 15,000, about 16.
Ocala population about 70,000: U.S. Census Bureau estimate for July 1, 2024 (70,251), via citypopulation.de; 2020 Census count 63,678.
Gainesville population about 149,000: U.S. Census Bureau estimate for July 1, 2024 (148,720), via citypopulation.de.
Key West population about 25,000: U.S. Census Bureau estimate for July 1, 2024 (25,240), via citypopulation.de.
Three cities combined: 70,251 + 148,720 + 25,240 = 244,211, against 242,747 confirmed dead.
Philadelphia 1,574,281; San Antonio 1,548,422; Phoenix 1,665,481: U.S. Census Bureau estimates for July 1, 2025, as reported by the Dallas Express. Ranked fifth (Phoenix), sixth (Philadelphia) and seventh (San Antonio). The 1,611,600 casualty figure exceeds Philadelphia and San Antonio and is about 54,000 short of Phoenix.
October casualties, 54,400: Ukrainian figures. November 1 record, about 2,500, and more than 2,000 a day to open November: Ukraine's General Staff and RBC-Ukraine. November 10 report showed 2,220 for the prior day.
Sixty thousand projection: about 2,000 a day for thirty days. Close to Ocala's population of about 70,000.
One day equal to about a sixth of the Afghanistan death toll: 2,500 against roughly 15,000. Casualties include wounded and captured; the Afghanistan figure is deaths alone.
Drones about ninety-six percent of Russian battlefield losses: Euromaidan Press, October 11, 2026.
Unmanned Systems Forces, 64,807 targets and 16,796 Russian soldiers killed in October: commander Robert Brovdi.
Near-real-time satellite data to drone crews: The Wall Street Journal, June 2026.
KARA carrier drone, about $9,900: Euromaidan Press.
Delta battlefield database: Ukrainian armed forces, as described in the supplied transcript.
Five days of training: United24 Media, February 2026. Twenty to thirty minutes survival: CIA Director John Ratcliffe, July 2026.
Fifty thousand a month goal: Mykhailo Fedorov, January 2026.
Soviet fear of mountain ambushes and shoulder-fired missiles in Afghanistan: general historical record (Stinger missiles supplied to the mujahideen from 1986).
Democrats won control of the House and Senate in the November 3, 2026 midterms: CBS News projections (at least 54 Senate seats; House estimate 251 to 268; Mississippi and Alaska Senate races still open as of the report). Check final counts before publishing.
Republicans wanting out of foreign wars; growing anti-Musk sentiment among Democrats: the writer's own observation. Polls through 2025 (Harvard CAPS/Harris, YouGov/Economist) showed Musk underwater overall.
Starlink carries nearly all of Ukraine's command, unit-to-unit and drone data links: Ukrainian Stratcom statement, as reported by The War Zone, February 6, 2026 (The War Zone noted it could not independently verify the claim).
SpaceX limited Starlink in and around Ukraine to registered ("white list") terminals and cut off unauthorized Russian use: The War Zone, February 2026; also reported by the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.