The Paul Truesdell Podcast

Welcome to the Paul Truesdell Podcast. Two Pauls in a pod. Featuring Paul the Elder and Paul the Younger. So, what's the gig? Individually or collectively, Paul and Paul sit down and chat predominately at the Truesdell Professional Building and record frequently. They explain a few things about how life works before time gets away. They connect the dots and plot the knots, spots, and ops with a heavy dose of knocks, mocks, pots, rocks, socks, and mops. Confused? Then welcome aboard! You see, Paul the Elder and Paul the Younger enjoy telling complex stories that are always based on business, economics, and forecasting while having fun, laughing, and being among like-minded men, women, and children from Earth, Pluto, Jupiter, and Neptune. Individually and jointly, Paul the Elder and Paul the Younger, coupled with Team Truesdell, have been there and done it. If you enjoy front porch philosophers who take deep dives and connect the dots, while drinking coffee during the day and a whiskey after five, welcome.

It is a true pleasure to have you onboard.

This is, The Paul Truesdell Podcast.

The conversation revolved around various topics, including mobilizing a nation's workforce during times of conflict, the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, retirement income strategies, homelessness in Florida, community engagement and volunteer work, and the importance of adaptability in retirement. The speakers shared personal anecdotes and historical context, emphasizing the value of community connection and social support. They also discussed the challenges faced by individuals in Florida and the importance of adaptability in the face of global calamities.

Outline

Military manpower shortages and labor reallocation.

Truesdell and Truesdell discuss fears of trans ice hockey players posing a danger to girls, with Truesdell II suggesting boundaries will keep getting pushed until they're pushed back.
Tooth to tail ratio in military reallocation of resources, with few on frontlines.
Paul Truesdell, II discusses the history of immigration and labor shortages in the US, particularly during World War II.
Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF expresses skepticism about the idea of bringing in immigrant workers to fill labor gaps, citing language barriers and the need for skilled workers.
Geopolitics, US foreign policy, and the impact on domestic issues.

Paul Truesdell, II: Labor shortages in Ukraine and Russia, with poor reporting on economy.
Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF: Ukrainian government not run by Hunter Biden or Satanic pedophile elites.
Paul Truesdell, II, highlights the shift in geopolitical alliances worldwide and the lack of focus on geopolitics in domestic politics.
Truesdell argues that the US's ability to protect sea lanes and maintain global influence impacts the purchasing power of the US dollar, and that retreating from this responsibility would have severe domestic consequences.
Politics, economics, and retirement planning.

Paul Truesdell, II discusses the cataclysmic shift in how businesses operate and the trade-offs involved.
Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF shares his experiences with political campaigns, including Goldwater's position on Vietnam and NATO.
Paul Truesdell, II expresses concern about retirees' vulnerability to systemic changes and skill decay.
Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF asks a question about the age limit for driving commercial vehicles with a CDL license.
Social Security, retirement, and job opportunities.

Paul Truesdell, II explains that Social Security's trust fund will run out and lead to a 20-30% decrease in payments.
Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF predicts a generational conflict as boomers retire and millennials/Gen Xers may face reduced Social Security payments.
Paul Truesdell, II suggests that many retirees could supplement their income by working part-time gigs, such as driving for ride-sharing services.
Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF criticizes people who give money to beggars, suggesting that most are alcoholics or drug addicts taking advantage of the system.
Paul Truesdell, II discusses the reasons why some people become homeless, including addiction and lack of access to support programs.
He also mentions the consequences of minimum wage increases and the impact of inflation on property prices in Florida.
The importance of working and financial planning.

Paul Truesdell, II discusses how people are hiring others to do tasks that were previously done by volunteers in the community.
Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF shares examples of how community engagement has shifted from volunteer work to paid positions in churches and other organizations.
Truesdell discusses generational conflicts in church leadership.
Paul Truesdell: $7,500 income stream requires $196,000 investment (3.82% rate of return)
Paul Truesdell: $400,000 investment could generate $101,960 in income (with inflation considered)
Retirement, adaptability, and mindset.

Paul Truesdell, II discusses the importance of having a purpose in life, staying active, and meeting people to avoid boredom and loneliness.
Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF shares stories about his experiences with barbers who worked hard and saved money, and encourages listeners to think about their own financial security.
Paul Truesdell II emphasizes the importance of adaptability in retirement, citing examples of active retirees in their 80s who are still working and living fulfilling lives.
Paul Grant Truesdell JD AIF shares a client's story of living on $1,400 monthly and doing well, highlighting the need to reassess one's standard of living and acceptance level in retirement.
Population growth, food supply, and sustainability.

Paul Truesdell, II: Some people lack purpose when shopping at grocery stores.
Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF: Too many choices at grocery stores can lead to decision paralysis.
Paul Truesdell, II: China's population may be around 888-900 million, not 1.21 billion.
Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF: Nigeria's population is slowing down due to low birth rates.
Human resilience and self-sufficiency in the face of global calamities.

Paul Truesdell, II: People are afraid of nature, domesticated, and losing connection with it.
Paul Grant Truesdell, J.D., AIF: Americans are afraid of nature, while Russians are more resilient, like cockroaches.
Paul Truesdell II discusses human resilience in the face of global calamities, emphasizing the importance of community and collective effort.
Paul Grant Truesdell JD AIF adds that self-sufficiency is not necessary for survival, and that a community of people contributing their skills can be more effective than individual effort.
Russian military struggles in Ukraine and lack of experience among troops.

Truesdells discuss conflict, maintenance, and international relations.
Russia continues to form new brigades despite high casualties.
Truesdell highlights lack of experience in Ukrainian military due to low morale and inadequate training.
Russian rail system maintenance and its impact on military logistics.

The Russian rail system is wearing out, particularly for military logistics, leading to increased derailments and safety concerns.
The lack of institutional knowledge among train repair workers is a growing issue, as older trains are being repaired with manual methods and new trains are being manufactured with cassette-based systems.
Paul Truesdell and Paul Grant Truesdell discuss adapting to challenges like a cockroach, using real-life examples.
They criticize using the term "alleged" when referring to personal experiences, calling it a "low blow."

00:00
The Paul Truesdale podcast. Most episodes are recorded in the Truesdale professional building. This episode was recorded remotely while traveling. Well, we took

00:09
a few weeks off, let's get back in the swing of things, I will start off with something here. Parents fear that trans ice hockey players pose a danger to girls. And so there is at least one male who is playing against girls as young as 14. Do you think it's ever going to end?

00:31
Now, you know, the boundaries will keep getting pushed until they get pushed back. It's it's how it works?

00:41
Yeah, I think that's a big thing we should maybe focus on today, we've talked a lot about this whole thing that people get pushed around until they decide to not take it anymore.

00:51
Some people do, most people just get pushed around their entire lives. And you know, they'll complain about it. And that eases their, their stress or whatever. But it depends. Depends on how fast you boil the frog.

01:09
I think one of the things that a lot of news organizations do not realize how little code they have is because people are pushing back and have pushed back and the alternatives are over the board. There's an article from you from a Bloomberg, Ukraine's manpower shortage is beginning to bite. But the headline says Ukraine is running short of people. And then he goes on to talk about the Ukrainian forces are starving off the Russian onslaught. They're being sapped more better nation. factories, full factory floors don't have any met on it. construction sites, mines, restaurants, your thoughts?

02:01
Not many new mobilize, you know a huge portion of your working age males and into the not just you know people think of all the military or others they don't have people. What are we talking about? Are we talking frontline combat? Are we talking about logistics? Are we talking about maintenance crews? What were we talking about combat medics? Are we talking about? Training? Personnel? We're talking about cooks? You know, we can go on and on. There's so many anybody who has been in the military or in any anywhere even remotely close to it understands that, you know, what is the term that they use? Tooth to tail ratio, and what's your tooth to tail ratio. And then Ukraine, I think, you know, the estimate is somewhere between I think in the West, it's like one to 12. In Ukraine, it may be one to six or eight. And that's both Russian and Ukrainian numbers. And a lot of that is because they didn't have big militaries to start with. So they have to force more people into, you know, closer to combat roles than not, let's call, but um, no, I mean, it is it's true. There's, there's a, a, let's call it a reallocation of resources all across the entire economy. And then you go back to World War Two in the United States, in any aspect of the military, the United States had like, what 12 or 16 million people something like that in Combat Arms positions, whether you're driving a truck or or, you know, carrying a rifle.

03:55
Yeah, there were people I have ever met in my life who were actually on the frontlines in combat, compared to the number of veterans, so

04:03
it's very few, very, very few. And the same, you know, I mean, back then them and there's a reason you had you know, all these Rosie the Riveter propaganda pieces and things, trying to get women to do jobs, to get them to enter the workforce and things. But you also had tons of, let's call it temporary workers from Mexico and Central America and stuff, who after the war ended, didn't want to leave. People forget about that part. If you go and look up, my blue was Eisenhower and Operation Wetback. That's where that slur comes from. It's an actual US military operation to deport millions of farmworkers in the Texas and other kind of bordering states who had been brought in during the war to do basic stuff to keep people fed. Because men were off doing other things that were more important.

05:04
Yeah, they're one of the things I think anyone who listens to our discussions has to realize that we don't sugarcoat anything. And that's just the way that is. I had a person, look at the YouTube, no, Facebook, I will use YouTube, Facebook video I put up about, you know, I went through the whole history, you know, Nixon and Earl Warren, and I use the word idiots running for president, we need to have a real discussion on things. That's a real discussion, if we have a war, and able bodied Americans, of which there are very few have to go to war against Russia and China, which is looking more and more, you know, we got to be prepared for that. We already got a labor shortage now. Yeah. So are we going to bring people in? Are they going to stay here? You know, the Juan Valdez doesn't speak English at all? Is he going to work on some complex machine? I mean, it's no, this

06:14
is why automate.

06:15
I mean, give me let me say this. He might, he might be very fluent in Spanish. And he's in Venezuela, and he's a high tech worker. But this country speaks generally generally English. But if he's a tomato picker, this is not going to contribute to the economy.

06:37
Yes, so, you know, to kind of go back to your original question. Yeah, there's there's labor shortages and all kinds of places. And in Ukraine and Russia. The thing is people focus on on Ukraine because especially in big media, because that's the topic du jour. But the the lack of, let's call it research, and curiosity about what's going on inside Russia is is interesting. As always, the let's call it the communist sympathizing media will never cover the drama that is going on. In the communist countries, and Russia is a communist country, whether you like it or not, it's a it's an evolved form of communism, just like China. It's evolved with the times and they've changed. And, you know, if you look at China and Russia, there's such poor reporting going on, with regard to their economy, at least on a on a on a large scale, you know, reputable, supposedly reputable outlets, like Wall Street Journal, New York Times, things like that. They cover it, sometimes it's shallow, not very, not very in depth. And and then they move on. But yet I can I follow tons of let's call alternative media, who, you know, they run with people who have sub stacks, and then they make, you know, living off of writing about it. Or they do it in their free time, or they do YouTube videos, or whatever it is, right. There's so much going on in China and Russia in particular. And it's, it's interesting, you know, it's all connected. All every everything here is, you know, the current conflict is, is deeply connected to the the modern Chinese situation with Taiwan. People don't realize that, you know, oh, China is officially sending lethal aid, according to everybody to Russia, to support them in their conflict with Ukraine. Why are they doing that? Now? Nobody ever asked that question. No, oh, it's because the whole purpose is to subjugate Russia and turn them into their own little, a larger, more effective version of North Korea that can provide them petroleum resources.

09:08
So before we go further, one of the things we tend to hit on this a lot in our in our podcasts or conversations, and the world is not ending and it's not made up of Hunter Biden is not in the Ukraine Government. And contrary to what some of the Make America Great. fanatics want to say. The Ukrainian government is not run by the the cousin third removed from Adolf Hitler. You know, you've got some really they're also

09:46
not run by play call it global satanic pedophile elites who have organ harvesting operations, like the Russians lining.

09:57
Yes. It So this, here's the thing. It goes back to legitimately where the US is going to be positioned worldwide.

10:10
That's just it's a shift we have we have a dramatic shift going on, for along geopolitical alliances all over the world. And, yeah, I mean that, I would say, you know, people are focused on when it comes to domestic politics, people are focused on, you know, obviously, the economy, economy is always the thing people focus on, because it affects everybody the most. I mean, typically, if it's not the economy, it's crime. But those are solvable things in any environment. You know, the typical issues most people are concerned with, the thing people don't realize is the effect of geopolitics will have a bigger impact on your life than any other domestic policy? Yeah, and this is the thing that is is always disturbing to me every election season, the total lack of care or focus, that the average commentator down to the voter gives to these these things, at least anymore? Well, I remember back, you know, when I was a kid, the elections would be heavily focused on, you know, foreign policy, and what is, you know, what, what are we going to do? I mean, it wasn't George George Bush was really the first one, in many, many years who ran on a policy of, I'm gonna focus on domestic issues. Where, you know, because of the cold war and everything, people focused on foreign policy, above all else, because people understood the importance of it. And now it's the opposite. Everybody's focused on me, me, me, me, me. And they're forgetting the big picture. You know, the short, the short term, you get get consumed the long term. And people don't realize that, you know, yeah, we, we do spend a lot of my own military and we do all these things. And we have our fingers and lots of pies all the time. But you do realize that benefits you purchasing power of your dollar is directly correlated with our ability to not only protect the sea lanes, but also ensure that the majority of the world uses the US Dollar as the trade currency. And that gives you purchasing power that otherwise you would not have. And if the United States were to do as some people, I would say on the more libertarian bent of things. Talk about completely focus inward and don't even focus on our own issues and completely retreat from, you know, as, as some of the let's call it more neoconservative, and neoliberal people call it our global responsibility. If we retreat from that the costs domestically would be in measurable, like, truly horrific stuff that nobody alive today is prepared to deal

13:11
with. No, you, bro, you've got a whole lot of things that you talked about, we could break down. First off,

13:17
and when I talk about them, economically, yeah, like the cataclysmic shift in in how we're able to do business, it would be disturbing. And then that also would be a substantial talking point in complaining who How did this happen, and whatever it's, you know, you can't have your cake and eat it too. Like there are trade offs, everything has a trade off.

13:40
One of the things that we are probably getting close to having is a hot conflict with China, and Russia, is getting closer and closer all the time. When it goes back to when I said about Bloomberg, I think you have to begin, at least I tell all my clients, I tell people who will listen to me, I get sick and tired of the the the repetitive, droning repetition of either Alex Jones or Fox News. I just I can't stand it.

14:14
It's not just Fox, though. Oh, no, you know, it's the other channels do the same. CNN does the same thing. Whether they're bent. You know, it's just they just repeat the same couple of headlines over and over and over and they get some new commentators in the talk about about the same issues. I mean, it's just just never ends. Yeah,

14:32
don't get me wrong about it. What I'm saying is that, you know, I go back to 1964 Johnson, versus cold water. That's the first campaign I can say that as a little kid I was involved in with my parents. Sure. But also remember my mom and dad reading position papers. Oh, yeah. That was a big deal. Well, what was Goldwater's position on Vietnam. What was Goldwater's position on NATO, what was Goldwater's position? It was all I mean, they actually wrote position papers now in 1968. I remember, you know, you had Nixon and Humphrey running. I remember campaigning aggressively for Nixon. You know, again, it was the same thing. I remember it at university, you know, we had these kinds of debates. And you had two distinct groups in the Republican Party, you had the ones who were, you know, very pro Nixon, pro Kissinger, Pro Day, Todd demilitarization, we were going to have salt, there'll be no salt means Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, and CLT. We have salt, one, salt, two, salt, three, we know it, you know, these are things that we debated, really hardcore. When Reagan ran against me, by the way, if anybody can hear my voice, I have a little bit of a cold. But when Reagan ran for the Republican nomination against Ford, I mean, I was Reagan guy until he, you know, be forgotten. In the position papers that us kids have been we wrote, you know, is like, the speeches that we gave, they sound like Clarence Darrow, compared to what some of these members of Congress say today. And I can that's the best. The problem is, I'm concerned that people don't realize the potentiality of NASA awarded to us. Some significant changes, especially among retirees, I think retirees could be shocked as to what could happen to them. In a very, very, very near future.

16:49
Yeah, I mean, it's a it's a fundamental kind of concern that, you know, when you're retired, and you're no longer you know, at least on paper, a productive employee or mover in the system that you become, you become vulnerable to the whims of the system because you're no longer no longer have that ability to contribute, or not contribute, but but let's call it elevate what you're doing and increase your income and maintain at least maintain and keep up with what's going on. You're much more, much more vulnerable.

17:29
Yeah, as soon as you don't have earned income, when you don't keep your skills up

17:36
near that. That's the other aspect to this is, you know, your skill skills are perishable, as anybody with any trade experience knows, yeah. Even if you're doing the same thing you're doing 10 years ago, if you don't do it all the time, you get rusty, and you don't, you're not as effective at it. And then also in the current era, when things move so quick. If you're not on top of things, you know, you lose, even if you have some knowledge, institutional knowledge and skills, the technology and the way of doing things shifts so quickly in a lot of industries, that you very quickly become obsolete. Let

18:11
me ask you a question. I do not know the answer to this. This is something I learned you have no no clue. The CDL license, you have a commercial driver's license. Guess what CDL means? Is there an age limit for driving some of these some ways?

18:28
I'm not aware of it. Although I can't claim that I ever have know much about CDL is of them. It's a thing of

18:37
well, you know, because Social Security is getting ready to run out of money meaning the trust fund Yeah, the trust on it. So for anybody listening, if you if you know me, for my clients, you know, I've been talking about this there's we're doing a lot of fundamental repositioning of assets in anticipation of this try to get people to understand it. And it's funny, you know, more more people I talked to they go Yeah, I've heard about that. But it's just like, it's like, oh, yeah, I heard that Macintosh apples are a twofer. One at BOGO at Publix. Like, No, dude, it's the apples are rotten, and you need to be more aware of things. But the point being is that Social Security the trust fund will run out. There's an automatic trigger 20 to 30% Decrease in Social Security. That's a fact goes back to the Reagan Tip O'Neill 1986. Not the 86 tax free format but with a quote shored up social security. But the point being is,

19:38
well the kids that the you know security will always be paid correct, because they'll just pay it out of the general tax fund. But the trigger is that if the trust fund does not compensate for honor percent of payments, then it will be reduced to reduce the burden on the taxpayer. Um,

20:00
so I think, you know, just kind of walking through all of the numbers as boomers retire, you're not contributing to society. If Ubers are more Republican and voting than, than other people, just the whole millennial Gen X, you know, that generational war thing that we talked about could actually become quite real. Not that there's going to be combat. But, you know, you could see people say, okay, look, you know, you had a pretty good for quite a while and it's time to, yeah, you're gonna get haircut on things. So I brought the CDL. Because as we get older, we don't have the same strength. We don't have the same ability to perform. But driving truck is not the hardest thing in the world. And if you don't act like an idiot, on your phones, your speed and all that, and we're still going to drive trucks. I wonder how many retirees could supplement their income traveling one or two days a week making some decent coin going from, like, Jacksonville to Tampa and back and forth? And you know, doing pretty damn well, I mean, they got to think like, instead of going to Dillards, making minimum wage,

21:13
well, you know, historically speaking, I mean, I remember mom talking about this a lot that, you know, she grew up in a small town in the Midwest. And she remembers every female member of her family as once he got done raising kids and all the kids were out of the house and whatever that was when they want to go to work, right. So, you know, I can remember her grandmother or somebody was a postmaster of the town and went back to college. And, you know, that's what else you're gonna do. Like, you know, your, your, your core, you know, everyday duties are, you're relieved of your duties effectively. Well, let me let me jump in there when the kids leave the house. So you know, it's like, kind of on board, I'm gonna go do something. And that's just a very common thing that used to take place. So I was thinking that you know, what? I told you this the other day, everywhere you go, there's hiring. I mean, I went to advanced autoparts the other day I told you, and when I was there, somebody was you know, asking Oh, are he is are they hiring blah, blah, blah. There's one guy working in the store one day, somebody had a question about their car, and he had to leave the store. So he's outside and I'm just tooling around looking for something I'm looking around like, there's nobody there's no employees left in the store. This is super strange. Anyway, point being is that every so the guy engaged in discussion with somebody but Whoa, whoa, yeah, of course, they're hiring. You just go here and apply and blah, blah, blah. And every place you go, there's a hiring sign up. There obviously short staffed with few exceptions.

23:02
And yet, you still have these roadside beggars. Oh, we and people give them money. What the hell's matter what people say those are the same people are defending men playing hockey in a little girls.

23:13
Yeah. Well, the reality is with most people that are begging, if you see them more than once they're an alcoholic or a drug addict. Because somewhere

23:25
else, you're gonna see so many

23:27
people. Well, yeah, or they're just, they're even more scum than that. Yeah, they are. They're working the system and they make they figure it out, they make more money begging. Right. But that but the point is that you know, some people are legitimately have issues and that's what that's that's the last straw they pull on. But reality is is the amount of programs and assistance and, and, and support that they can get from either charity or government programs is such that pretty much nobody really needs to or will be permanently homeless. The only exception to that is those that are there by choice are those that refuse to dry themselves out. Alright, because most of these programs require if you're addicted to any controlled substances, you are not allowed to you have to you have to test clean and all these various things to continue to get assistance or to get help. And same thing for alcohol. So you know when you see the homeless encampment behind the liquor store, you understand very clearly what's going on you know, they're addicts so yeah, there's not a lot of sympathy for those people for me when you realize the statistics anyway, but yes, yes, there's it seems like everywhere you go, so they're hiring somebody somebody's it may not be the best job in the world. But the reality is, is even your fast food restaurants by next year are paying $15. Now, yeah, because of the Florida constitutional amendment that everybody jumped for joy to pass the increase minimum wage to $15 an hour. So, you know, there are consequences to these actions. And, you know, in Florida, we have a tremendous amount of, let's call it real inflation on real property and things like this, from people moving from all of these things, but a lot of it also is just wages, I mean, people are gonna charge what they think they can get, and people are gonna pay what they think they can afford. And it is what it is, you know, that's, it's, it's a driver of momentum more than anything. So now, the point being is just simply that, you know, everybody's, I can see where people say, Oh, I'm going to retire, I'm gonna go to Florida. You know, it's nicer, it's not as cold, it's not, winters won't be as painful, that sort of thing, like people have always done, pull the plug a little early, down here. And then you come down here, you spend a few years, you know, doing what you want to do. And then you decide, you know, like, I'm sure, I'm sure it will become less of a luxury for people that to sit around and do absolutely nothing. And we all know that if you stay engaged and have a purpose in life, you tend to live a little bit longer, statistically speaking, but maybe you're so security or whatever, it doesn't keep up as much and you're worried about longevity, work a part time job, do something stay engaged. I mean, in retirement communities, it's super common to have, you know, people doing all kinds of assistance type things that are low effort, let's call there is a locals are working on their own, you know, the community pool in the clubhouse and that sort of stuff, and a lot of

26:57
good old fashioned security guards, just somebody who's awake at night, the night watchman.

27:02
Yeah, yeah. But what I'm saying is just, you know, a lot of these things people are getting paid to do what, okay, I was gonna bring up but even if you're just going up and you know, working, you know, a couple of shifts a week at your Burger King or McDonald's or something, something simple, low, low effort. Low stress, right. And, you know, a little bit goes a long way in that case.

27:24
Well, let me give you a couple of quick examples. One, I want to go back to what you said that people are hiring out things. So when my going back to the 70s When my dad first retired, sure. You mentioned about when women went back to work after the kids are gone. Well, my mom didn't do that. But my mother was very actively involved in the community and supporting my dad in all the entertainment in the chooser she worked. Those make it really clear, they would do a lot of you know, it's like, it's 1950s That's my parents are there 1950s. You know, they're having a cocktail parties and all the socials, that kind of stuff. She's working. But when he first retired, guess what they did? My mother would volunteer at the church, Grace Lutheran, and she was part of the cleaning crew, my dad volunteered. And even when he was working, he, it was like, once a month. But then he said, Well, you could do it every week, you go up to the church, and he pushed the mower, sure. But they didn't have a mower, and a bunch of mowers, the guys, the guys would just come up, you know, riding mower say them riding Moore's guys, like get four or five guys push mowers you have already more, but it's not like today, you know, and but they maintain the place. Yeah, there was no cleaning crew. The church had never had that. However, by between then, and when they moved to Florida, which was only a few years, guess what happened? retirees? Oh, no, they hire somebody into church for hiring. And

28:56
then the church just they're focused on raising more money instead of community engagement. Yep. And then what do they do? Exactly right. Oh, now we need an extra $30,000 a year to pay for the lawn Exactly. Right. I mean, an extra $12,000 a year to hire somebody to do the cleaning. And it just becomes a business. You know, what happens to a community engagement in a in a in a community outlet, they are now focused on on money. I can tell you and you know what I tell you it's funny because that that time period if you start thinking about you know where that lines up in history, and then that's when your big mega churches and your televangelists and all that sort of stuff start becoming popular.

29:40
I remember being at church, because what happened was you had a lot of grid, grandfathers and children. Okay, my dad was older, obviously, he was old enough to be my grandfather. My point being is that well, you know, if you had made his 20s he had been a grandfather in his 40s. So that's your The opposite works out. So I'm there with my dad. He's retired and we're mowing the grass and we're doing things. And of course, as kids, we're always doing the stupid work like pulling the weeds and that kind of thing. And I vividly remember my dad coming home and tell my mom that one of the guys up there was complaining about we'll say, Joe, Joe wasn't wasn't there. He Joe doesn't volunteer Joe's always golfing. Sure. And he had to say, Joe's working. Yeah. And the folks were like, please not work. He's golfing. No, I golf. And when I was visiting, you know, on the bid, blah, blah, blah, you golf, that's a great place for business. Saturday's is, you know, Joe volunteers at different times he could take off during the week, but not the weekends. It was a they were upset about that. And as more I think about it right now, it was that is that was what the reason why well, we're gonna hire that out because it causes conflict inside. You see how that goes. It's your weak leadership, Diddy, Diddy Bob's? Yeah, whatever. Real quick that you sell. So said, people don't realize how just a few dollars go a long way. So if you work for $50 an hour, you work 500 hours a year. Now the normal work here if you're working full time is 2000. AD. So 15 times 500 is $7,500. What does it take portfolio wise to have income streams dependent upon interest, dividends and capital gains? Well, the rate the ratio is 3.82. So that means if you divide it out, you need $196,000 to generate $7,500 A year and a very conservative 3.82, which is what you would you would want in what you know not being aggressive. So yeah, your $15 An hour job at 3.8.

32:02
So you have to remember keeps is is a is a is as close as is as much income as you can take without, at least according to you know, simulations for market returns. Yeah, it's as much as you can take out without ever running out of money, or at least the best guarantee the best hope for not running out of money. It's called

32:25
Monte Carlo simulations. And just real quickly, it goes back to a study that I have, I'm not going to write the word guarantee or anything else. But I always have said, I did hundreds and hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of 1000s of Monte Carlo simulations. And it always comes out I don't care what the I don't care what the allocation Okay, well, the economy, I don't care anything. It's only been 3.82% it but that's like 90 98.9% chance of not running out of money. So that's the closest thing to get a guarantee. But the

32:56
key is, is that doesn't keep up with inflation, of course, not where a job while while wages lag inflation, at least they're trailing inflation, typically. So, you know, when you count inflation into it for the past couple of years, it's been 4%, add four to that 3.2. Right now, you're in unsustainable territory, for that dollar figure. And it's much more,

33:21
but when someone says, you know, it's not worth my time to work? Yeah. Well, if somebody gave you $400,000, and you're working 20 hours a week, would you take that? Yeah, I mean, it's the same kind of concept, you know, so I don't know,

33:38
that $7,500 is now what was the number you came up with? 101 96 To make it similar to hundreds now you're doubling up? Yeah, to keep up with inflation. Exactly. So it's actually worth a lot more it is and of course, that depends on the economy, it depends on the circumstances and all these other various things. But you know, it is it is not, it is not insubstantial, your ability to work and plus it also as carry on, has carry on has a follow on benefits. I mean, having a purpose in life makes you feel better. Having something to do with makes you feel better. You know, you meet people, you talk to people you have, you know, staying active stay, you typically stay healthier. You know, there's there's all these other various things that people don't really think about until you're in it that Oh, well. You know, I didn't I didn't think I'd like this that much. But you know, having someplace something to go do three days a week turns out makes me feel a whole heck of a lot better. Instead of sitting around the house and, you know, doing nothing or just playing another round of golf, which we all know you play your same courses only so many times and you get bored I mean, you know, we're all are all creatures of habit, but at the same time, we Also getting bored with weather habits especially if you have, you know, no responsibilities.

35:06
We used to get a hair cut a place called your father's mustache and two brothers owned it. And these guys, one was blond one was dark haired, but knew almost like twins over like five years difference. They were big, thick head of hair. I mean, it mustaches. Oh my god, you know, it's like to die for something from the 19 1800. Just, you know, just huge. Those guys I know for a fact. The wives worked as teachers. They ran the the barbershop. They always told everybody. Yeah, every time the ladies make, they get to keep half their half goes into the kitty. They've worked really lived off in the barber business. They were loaded. And they told me Yeah, for doing great. 20 years of saving half of what your spouse is making and just going away. So yeah, we're doing great. And we're making money here. And there was like, Tommy, who when I worked at Midland hardware as a kid, and Tom, who was in his 40s he worked for I think he worked for he was an engineer someplace. Gosh, darn everything. Kudos Allen Bradley. I think it was an engineer Alan Bradley. And he worked a bit on hardware on weekends, versus investment money. And he would show us kids we have look, I got like $300,000 When I started teaching Sunday, what it would be to me, I was like, that's a lot of money back. Then Tommy's like, yeah, that's all my as all my part time buddy working at a hardware store. That's a lot. That's a lot of coin. So anyway, yeah. People, people do better get ready for this, because I really think Well, I guess it's going back to China and Russia, you'll have to start thinking about this stuff. Yeah. Well, I

36:52
think the reality is, you just have to look at it from the perspective of you know, going back to what we're saying earlier, you know, when you're retired, you're more vulnerable to changes. Yep. If you aren't paying attention, and if you're not flexible, you know, everybody thinks that, you know, Darwin on the evolution evolutionary pressures are that it's survival of the fittest. Swear, that's absolutely not true. It's the fittest, the fittest in every conflict die off, right? And every in every major change in evolution in history, the fittest die off, people don't realize that being the strongest and most, most combat ready and capable. It's like, no, no, the cockroaches survive, they will always survive. And why is that? Because they'd be adapt, they adapt to

37:38
their environment? Versus flexible. They're no Weibel

37:41
Why are humans wire wire wire homosapiens. And in our, in our modern form, why are we still around where all these other people didn't, didn't survive. Because we were more adaptable to our circumstances, meteor hits, Earth wipes out 99% of the population, we just keep, we just keep moving it is what it is. So, you know, the reality is, is the same thing applies to all this stuff. You know, you look at, you're in retirement, and you're thinking about, you know, all these things, and you're scared about it. Just be willing to adapt. Think about your circumstances. And you know, what standard of living? Do you want to maintain? What, you know, it's kind of like a similar what you've talked about what standard of living Can you can you accept and what standard of living is going to get you to get off?

38:24
We have a client that lives on $1,400 a month and is doing wonderful. Yeah.

38:29
But it's you know, your own thing about, you know, how much can you stand to lose get before you get uncomfortable? Or mad or and that sort of thing and take the same thing and look at your standard of living? And then what at what point can you accept? Are you mad? And at what point are you going to actually get off your behind and go do something. And, you know, I think a lot of people are getting getting off, you're behind and doing something, if you're, if you're feeling the pressure sooner rather than later. It'll keep you healthier. And that's just as well, that's why we keep bringing it back to that. But I think it's important because you know, some of the most more active retirees that we encounter, some of them are in their 80s. And you would never know it. Because they're active, they're doing things some of them have, you know, they they own businesses, or part time employment or whatever their situation is, but they're there. There's activists, anybody else 20 years younger than them. And some of them man, they, they look and behave just as just as effectively or let's say, let's say somebody 10 years younger than them, acts like somebody in their 90s And it's like, oh, boy, I mean, some of that's health stuff. Obviously, some of them can't help, but a lot of its mindset, and you can see it. I mean, there's there's been so many people I've seen or heard stories of in the past couple of years. People that are, let's call it 10 Do retirees. The younger boomers? Yeah, oh my god, some of them they act like crypt keepers, you'd think you'd think that they'd been working in the coal mines their entire life. And it's like, it's all mindset. And if if if that's your mindset, then you know what? It's unfortunate, but I

40:17
don't go to the grocery store that much. I just don't. But when I do go, one of the things I always look for guys, is the person walking with purpose. Yeah. And I was at a Publix here in town, the one at what 95th of the 60s. And I actually had a guy stop me and say, I just want to compliment you. I stopped. Okay, he said, I've seen you in here a couple of times. You're always well dressed. And you, you you walk really quick, like, like, where you want to go? And I just don't see that. I thought. Well, thanks a lot you have and just a quick little conversation. That sounds very braggadocious but it's not. Yeah.

41:00
I told you that it's just such an odd conference.

41:02
Yeah, like, oh, well, thank you. You know, it's it was it was odd. And I think he was younger than me. Wouldn't surprise me. But he's just shuffled along and just kind of, you know, God, I sorry, I just don't get that mentality. I just don't

41:22
yeah, there's, there's I guess it's a lack of purpose. Some in some people, you know, I know I'm going to store I'm gonna get these three things and you thought it out and other people build the store. It's like Oh, I'm gonna get some things and then you just wander around for 90 to do because like I don't have any place to be all let's let's go see what they've added over here in the in the ethnic aisle that they add anything to that Cuban section like you know, that's that's never been me. I mean, I'll I'll walk through walk through a store is one

41:50
that we do do that we do at Lowe's or Home Depot or those kinds of places. We'll go to the tool store look around just got Mosier. Yeah, I guess I guess, but not, not the same damn rustbelt food place. So yeah,

42:04
of course, you know, the same thing comes to mind is like children, you know, with a menu at a restaurant, and they just like, you know, they're overwhelmed by the choices. And they're, they're scanning the menu. And it's like, I don't know what to pick. There's so many options. Yes, but it's like you also, I think, get a similar effect when you go. When you go to the grocery store. It's like, I don't know how many. How, how many? How many damn cans of jam can do you have to pick from like? raspberries, raspberries, seedless raspberries, no sugar, raspberries this like

42:39
when you go to the kids menu, think about it. What do they have? Three or four things? Yeah, maybe five? Yeah. Too many choices can't make a decision. Yeah, either. I just think that we took a little break. And we'll get back into the swing of things here. But that's not being a Debbie downers. But

43:01
it's just there's shifts on the horizon, there are shifts potentially, and

43:06
where there's absolutely a shift with a couple of demographics. China doesn't have a billion people they may not even have there, they might be in the eight hundreds.

43:14
I definitely think based on the data we saw during COVID, and all the various other things before China completely locked down all their data, I would say they're probably around 888 to 900 million in that range, which is still a lot of people, but it's not the 1.21 point 3 billion that that India has right now is bigger than not that India is doing anything effective with it. They don't seem to have that global competitiveness streak the Chinese do. So they're not as much of a problem to deal with. At least as far as ambition goes,

43:52
the other big boy on the block can beat up because of Nigeria. They're breeding like rabbits over there. Yeah,

43:58
that's slowing, though. It is. It's, you know, Nigeria is a big country, but it's not as big as it needs to be for the population that people talked about, you know, the Nigeria 2050 You know, 1 billion people thing. It's like, you know, when, when you get too many people per square mile, like people have an intuitive sense that like, there's just too much population by slow down, and

44:21
that they when I was a kid, we had The Population Bomb. And we also knew that global cooling, we had these, you know, the big studies that the cyclical nature. And I remember as a kid, you know, how we were taught and studied about, you know, the Stratovarius and how it was built, and it was based upon certain types of wood that was that was cured and created when you had a cold, the weather was very, very cold and

44:52
you don't know whether it's colder, the tree rings grow slower, and that caused the wood to whatever specifically But it was it was just changed for a certain period of time. Yeah, yeah. So

45:04
there's one of the reasons I moved to Florida is to get the hell out of the cold and I was gonna freeze to death up there. So, but everything has was said, we went from global cooling to global warming to global change. And we've, you know, I guess think that people just deleted the whole point, The Population Bomb, we're gonna have 20 gazillion people, everybody was gonna be standing on top of each other taking turns putting your feet on the soil, it just it didn't turn out? Well,

45:38
yeah, the worry with The Population Bomb was never there's not enough space, I mean, you can fit you can fit every human being in the entire world, as long as they're standing in LA County, that's not a big deal. The the issue is the ability to feed them. And, you know, that's ultimately not a problem, I don't think it would require creative solutions to be able to feed 20 billion people, but, you know, whatever, eat the bugs, it is one of those. But the real issue comes down to the destruction of the planet support all these people. You know, that's where the real environmental concern is. And you can see it I mean, you know, the, the amount of birds and other animals just roaming around the Earth is at an all time low. Oh my god, at least at least at least in the past 10,000 years. It's a, it's an it's a very, it's a very low part of the ebb and flow.

46:40
Well, you go down the villages, look at village news.com, or net, whatever it is, whenever an alligator goes from one pond to another, they lose their frickin mind and you know, call the sheriff and resources and animal control and get it out of here they go bananas, what you're in Florida. Here's everything. In New York, they were losing their mind over that OWL. Owl, he finally died. Because they have an owl that was flying around. Like why is there an owl in New York City, or a lot of these seeds are beginning to get you know, coyotes or they're getting foxes like, Oh my God, what's that thing on the ground? It has a big long tail. It's not a cat. Really?

47:18
Well, yeah, people become so domesticated, that they're afraid of nature. And that's a good one. That is that is a serious issue with any conflict going forward. I mean, we make fun of the Russians for what is it like 30% of them still go number two, and an outhouse. And they go number one, just anywhere they want to go. As I've seen many drunk Russians, they're just sitting on a park bench waiting or sitting on a bench waiting for the bus and they just whip it out and go, they don't care. Yeah.

47:48
But here, you go to jail. And if there's a kid anywhere within a mile, you go to jail for what is indecent exposure in front of a minor and that's of sex crime for life. So yeah.

48:01
You know, as much as we make fun of that, you know, the reality is, is, you know, right now, you know, Russians are going to be more on the cockroach side of the spectrum, if there's some type of global calamity. And, you know, a world that is repopulated with nothing but Russians actually as some type of horror movie plot that I can't say I would really want to be around for but um, you know, the majority of Americans, man, it's just, it's, you're so domesticated. You're so afraid of nature, you

48:32
just gave me the title of my new book. Think like a cockroach. Yeah.

48:38
Very true. But, you know, a lot of a lot of, you know, interest on my part over the past 10 years has been into, you know, let's call non human caused global calamities, you know, which is basically all of them and you know, your, your, your asteroids, your tsunamis or earthquakes, your you know, all kinds of weird stuff that has happened in what's called the human existence on the planet, not even counting, you know, dinosaurs and stuff like that. So we're talking just in the past, probably 100,000 years or so, right?

49:25
Since the days of the first complex cell. Well, now No,

49:32
no, what I'm saying is in since modern, let's call me anatomically correct or modern humans have existed on Earth, which is between 500,000 a million years. And there's been a lot that's happened. And yeah, we survived. We're here. Well, there's so much that hits us or almost wipes us out and we just keep on moving. And many way might point is that my interest in that really makes you realize how resilient humans are in the grand scheme of things. And, you know, we'll figure it out. It's not it's not the end of the world. No, no, not even remotely close. But it does. But it is interesting to consider how domesticated people are.

50:20
Well just take our neighborhood here. We were talking about putting a well said, that's one of the things we really ought to have, because this is our first place when we don't have a well, we haven't, uh, well, at the office, the offices is fort, we, we live off grid there. But my point being is that being being self sufficient is not necessarily a bad thing. I believe only people in which they can grow food wise what they can do, but I think

50:49
the most important thing is every person doesn't have to be self sufficient. Correct? When you have a community of people, and everybody can contribute a little bit. Yep. You know, that's not communism or socialism, as you know, everybody the most extreme on they have a right politically aligned this country would have you think, you know, you don't have to do everything yourself. And that's the point, going back to the mowing the lawn of the church and stuff like that, you know, the church didn't have to have, you know, a service at the same time, they also didn't have to have, you know, a shed full of equipment, because everybody just brought their own, who cares? Roll it roll the push mower up to the church, and we're gonna give it a good mow uns and six other people, because it's a five acre lot. It's a big place. You know, it's just, it's, you know, I guess it's just hard. It's just hard to the,

51:43
the people that don't know how

51:44
we got here.

51:46
It's all politically correct crap. But here's the thing, you here's what happens. You have, let's say, let's use this use this community. We spent a lot of money in maintenance, right? What the what was the number? Do you remember the number was, doesn't matter the matter? So it was a lot of money. If every guy in it, we just started mowing the right aways, it could be done. I'm not saying just give you an example. Yeah. Okay. So we decided we're all gonna do that, right? We're gonna start really maintaining things and blah, blah, blah. What happens is one person is a user. They don't they don't do it. So then somebody says, well, Bob's not doing this. So they start picking up at a desk. What happens is like, it's not fair what we're working at. Yeah. So basically, just that everything falls apart that that's usually I think, what happened? Well, that's just

52:36
an excuse. Because human interpersonal conflicts is a feature not

52:41
above. Oh, that's interesting, sad to get human interpersonal

52:45
conflict as a feature, not a bug. And if you can't handle conflict with other people, you need to go out and be the mountain man and go hide in the woods and enjoy what's left of your life. Because this is what humans do. We constantly argue, fight, complain, and bicker. That's, that's, that's what we do.

53:05
I mean, it's not all about drinking Kool Aid. It's singing Kumbaya. No, no. Okay. I thought it was always like that. But let's wrap this up. I think one of the things that we have hit perpetually on our talks, we'll see a little shifting coming up, but it's getting hot with China. Taiwan is getting the

53:26
nether and they're continuing to make threats, but I don't see anything that's going to change that in the near future.

53:34
The other thing is, the Russians are just getting slaughtered just perpetually.

53:41
The most highest casualty month of the war so far, almost 40,039 and change

53:48
not publicly talked about by anybody to speak of.

53:52
Not really. But like people don't realize even even with the the you know, issues that are ongoing like it's it's when you when you don't have the equipment and you don't have the here's an asset, here's an aspect of it that people are not discussing at all very, very few people. Russia continues to form new brigades. Okay, well, you have let's say you haven't brigade they go out they there's something to do go do something. And like the one I read about in Google and I read about from Russian sources, this is not this is this is their own segments. They go out and they in a 60 day rotation at some section of the front. They have casualties that amount to 90% of their brigade. Okay. And amounts to like 46 a day for 60 days like that's just horrific. They He come back. Normally, you take, okay, we had one, you wouldn't leave people in the field that long, just because it's horrible. But to take them, you bring them back, you take them back to a training center, you obviously are going to have like, mentally, totally screwed up people. But aside from all that, you then reconstitute the people that are left to train the train the new guys, they bring them in, you know, your unit has, you know, your, your traditions, and your whatever, and you got to bring people in and people into your, into your culture, right. And every every every unit has its has a culture, they've got, you know, mascots and stories and all kinds of stuff, right? That just makes you part of the gang. Well, Russia is not doing that. They just keep forming new brigades. And then from scratch from scratch, so there's no reason work, but there's nobody with any experience is the point. And there's portlets, maybe not nobody, but very few people, there's not enough to get to let the to, you know, get that experience to, you know, circulate around a unit of any size. So it's, it's very, very screwed up. That doesn't take a toll immediately, but it's one of those things within time, you'll start to see the impact that that has on an entire force. And it's having an impact. Now you have people that have almost no experience, they may have the best training in the world they have no there's nobody teaching them the things that are on teachable without actual field experience. And it's you know, you're having situations where the like, I can't remember the the unit, but it was like the 1,029th like Rifle Brigade like gets wiped out effectively. That's just incomprehensible to any other military. You get stuff like I've seen tons of videos, I showed you one recently of a Russian, the lead tank and a in a column of Russian tanks going to assault position. There's a destroyed armored vehicle of some sort in the middle of your, your main pathway. And what does he do, he just drives around the block, it's like, really, without being told that you it has been cleared for you by sappers or somebody to crawl up there and check the path. He just goes around the blow up armored vehicle and then hits the minefield that the guy before him some other day obviously hit and then he gets blown up. It's like very basic things that you shouldn't really even need to be taught. Your your fight or flight sensors should kick in. And instead it's just these people don't know anything. So you know, there's there's that going on. That's that's a very interesting aspect of the conflict that I'm sure will get more attention as time goes on. We talked about this years ago now at this point, and when this thing first started, that the Russian train system and logistics would eventually be a problem with increased capacity and loads for heavy military, machinery, equipment, supplies. They heavily rely on the rail system to move heavy equipment around, of course,

58:39
one of the things that you have to have when you have a rail system, you have to have ball bearings, and you have to regress them and you have to repair them. Well. Yeah, so that's one of the main issues. Go ahead. Well,

58:52
yeah, so So that goes back to the collapse and you know, the Soviet Union and the global integration of the Russian rail system into how the rest of the world works. And you know, Soviet eras, trains in the Bering systems for their wheels are very old school, like we're talking 1800s Old School, where you're, you manually packing grease the ball bearings in the wheels, right? In the West, we just use cassettes. It's a cassette based system, meaning it's like modern cars, you go up with your with your impact wrenches, take them out, pop a new one, and you're ready to roll. And the Russian ones are designed for longevity, but they require more labor to repair. Well, they switched to cassettes, like the whole world. And then they stopped from being able to get them because they're manufactured mostly in Germany and like Britain or someplace. So then There are old trains that are manually dealt with had to be put back in the service. Well, those are now wearing out.

1:00:10
And the problem is you also know how the people who don't people to repair exactly just don't have the institutional knowledge. Exactly.

1:00:16
So the maintenance of the Russian rail system in particular, the, the part of the rail system that's being heavily used by military logistics, is is wearing out and that's a an aspect that's starting to crescendo that you're gonna see a lot of train derailments and a lot of like scary stuff start to happen. Because you know, the guys off on high, they're not being told about any of those because you know, those get mad and fire you or send you the gulag, or whatever. Or these days, you don't get sent to the Gulag, they've been shutting prisons down in Russia, because they don't have enough prisoners, because everybody's being sent to the frontline. So these days, it's the Gulag would be very, would be would be a preferable position to be sent to, as compared to the front. But anyway, point is, you know, so you're seeing, you're seeing some things appear and have some effects that are they're fairly new, but you're also starting to see the effects of things that we talked about a long time ago. Yep. Anyway, it's just, it's interesting, it really shows you how interconnected everything is and how you can cope and solve problems. And, and adjust and become that cockroach. And that's one thing people underestimated. And I'll say, you know, even I definitely underestimated the the willingness to adapt, even in those crazy adverse conditions, like, you know, those people will survive no matter what, it's crazy

1:01:51
in my new book, think like, think like a, like a cockroach. So I'll wrap it up with this. This is a ticket a shot at a an organization, you know, when you make an allegation, you know, that's all of this. So you say, right, you know, the allegation? Sure. The people who don't understand that when you actually have experience, and you say things, the word alleged you know, are wrong with us. So yeah, yeah. It's not alleged experience that we have is real experience. And when somebody says, Oh, well, you that's what you allege or you have alleged experience when you actually have it. That's pretty, pretty low, bro. A low blow. And I don't cotton to that. That's my favorite phrase. There are people if you say to the Ukrainian so well, they're just, they're just a bunch of radicals just they should surrender. They'll never would. They don't know what they're doing. You have no idea what you're talking about. Those people have adapted. They're obviously they think like a cockroach. But they're a little bit more sophisticated, the cockroaches that attacked them. And I think one of the best things I love doing with you is on Fridays, we watch these videos, and how they've adapted these drones. Oh, yeah. Okay. So drone warfare is not alleged warfare. It's a real thing. And so when use the word alleged, I wouldn't encourage you to think more than twice about it. Because if the person knows what they're doing, you have a goddamn fool with that. We're done. We're out of here. Typically new Tyler to That's it.

1:03:40
You have been listening to the Paul Truesdale podcast for additional items serious to humorous wisdom to occasional outrage of various degrees. Visit Paul truesdell.com. That's Paul truth truesdale.com.

1:04:08
grown trees down. Roger that dust off

1:04:18
on the floor now


Transcribed by https://otter.ai