Episode 500
0:00
The Paul Truesdell podcast marks its 500th episode, a milestone that reflects not only consistency but a deep commitment to thoughtful, fact based analysis and the pursuit of genuine understanding in an often superficial world across hundreds of episodes, Paul grant Truesdell has provided listeners with something rare in modern media context, continuity and clarity. He does not chase headlines. He connects them. He does not amplify noise. He distills meaning
0:33
through changing markets, political upheavals, social realignments and technological revolutions. Truesdells voice and the voices that join him have remained steady. Each episode serves as an artifact of its time, capturing not just events but the thought process behind them. Listeners have come to expect depth without pretension, humor without cynicism, and a perspective shaped by experience, not agenda.
1:02
This 500th episode continues that tradition. The featured artifact and exploration of Pavlov, conditioning and behavioral finance reminds audiences Why truesdells commentary endures. He bridges psychology and economics, human nature and market cycles, reason and reaction. His work shows that knowledge is not static. It is conditioned, refined and tested by time.
1:29
Reaching 500 episodes is more than an achievement of production. It is an act of endurance. It speaks to a relentless curiosity and a belief that people still crave ideas with substance each recording, whether delivered solo or through the blended tones of multiple AI voices, demonstrates that technology can enhance communication without erasing authenticity.
1:51
Looking ahead, the Paul Truesdell podcast remains committed to delivering real insight for those who think critically and refuse to be conditioned by noise. 500 episodes stand as evidence that persistence and principles still matter, and that informed voices, when guided by integrity and intellect, can endure through every market cycle, every storm and every bell that tries to trigger a reflex instead of reason.
2:31
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, one and all, get ready for the big event. And so you ask, what is the big event? Well, it's none other than the Paul Truesdell podcast, and so let's get this show on the road, 54321,
2:56
around the turn of the 20th century, Ivan Pavlov's work with dogs forever changed how we understand behavior. In his landmark experiment, Pavlov discovered that when he repeatedly rang a bell while feeding his dogs, they eventually began to salivate at the sound alone, even when no food followed, what began as a psychological study of digestion became one of the most profound lessons in psychology that living beings can be conditioned to respond automatically to external cues, even when those cues no longer align with
3:44
reality, no longer aligned with reality. Now, that
3:49
lesson extends far beyond the laboratory in modern finance investors, and I'm talking about every single one of us, without an exception, are conditioned by repeated exposure to certain emotional and financial stimuli. Our reactions to market movements, economic headlines and even the endless political rhetoric are built over years and sometimes well decades. Each experience creates an association that shapes how we perceive risk and reward. Let me repeat that each and every thing we see, listen, hear, touch and just simply feel, creates an association that shapes how we perceive risk and reward, like Pavlov's dogs, we react not to objective reality put well, but to the bell that reminds us of the past gains or losses that we've experienced.
4:56
We often react not to objective reality. But to the bell that reminds us of past gains or losses
5:04
in behavioral finance, these reactions fall broadly into three categories, and so these are my three facts, fear and folly. Those guided by facts tend to analyze information logically. They rely on fundamentals, earnings, cash flow, valuations, and maintain perspective during turbulent times. They are disciplined investors who understand that volatility is temporary, but long term compounding is permanent. They may delegate, they may retain, but they are focused on reality and facts, and so they are disciplined investors who understand that volatility Well, it's temporary, but long term compounding is permanent. Now those who are ruled by fear remember pain more vividly than profit, a market correction or recession can leave lasting emotional scars, leading to excessive caution, missed opportunities or paralyzing indecision. This is not uncommon. And then there are the folly F, O, L, L, Y, folly, the impulse driven behavior that emerges when greed, speculation or social contagion overrides good, solid judgment. Now let's talk about some examples. Well, that includes buying technology stocks in 1999 because everyone else was getting rich. Remember that stupid ad with the guy who held a sock with a couple of dots on it and called himself a sock puppy, and they were selling sock puppy, dog food, whatever. But I digress. So it's 1999 and everyone was chasing the get rich schemes out there, or today, chasing cryptocurrencies at their peak in 2021 despite the obvious signs of a mania, yes, just like the tulip mania, the
7:21
tulip mania, which swept through the Netherlands in the 1630s was one of history's first recorded financial bubbles, when the price of tulip bulbs soared to absurd heights before collapsing overnight, reminding the world that emotion and speculation can outpace reason and reality,
7:38
These reactions are not random. They are the direct result of conditioning. For instance, an investor who sold in panic during the 2008 financial crisis may have been rewarded in the short term by avoiding further losses. That emotional relief becomes reinforcement, a signal that selling at the first sign of trouble is the right move. Aha, not so fast. Buckaroo. Years later, when markets fluctuate, that same investor instinctively repeats the behavior, expecting the same relief, even if it means missing a major recovery. On the other hand, an investor who bought during the post crash rebound might have developed a dangerous confidence of always buying the dip, conditioning themselves to assume every downturn will recover instantly. It doesn't until it does not and they're a little bit older, and there's not a lot of time to recover.
8:51
If you know him, you've heard him say timing in time in timing out. Paul is the master at timing out. Let's continue.
9:02
The long term effects of such conditioning can be, well, rather profound. You see, over time, emotional reflexes shape portfolio outcomes more than the actual markets do. Fearful investors often end up underexposed equities and lose purchasing power to inflation. Those driven by the folly may Chase every new trend and eventually destroy their capital through overconfidence, even fact based investors, if not mindful, can fall prey to recency bias. Recency bias, the tendency to give greater importance to the latest event while forgetting the broader historical cycle after long bull markets, people believe that good times will never end despite corrections. They assume. And recovery is impossible, and so recency bias magnifies the impact of conditioning because it continually reinforces emotional patterns. After a few good years, the bell, Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding that triggers greed grows louder and louder, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, after a few bad months, the bell that triggers fear, ding, ding, ding, ding, becomes deafening. Ding, ding, ding, ding, the challenge for advisors is to help clients recognize these bells and recondition their thinking. I'm dead serious about this. That's a major part of what we do. Think of it like this, our process, which we've trademarked and patented, Camelot, common sense, advice, management, education and what encouragement with logic, organization and technology. That encouragement was there placed there deliberately with a lot of thought and consideration. It's not a matter of intelligence, but awareness. Even seasoned professionals, and we see this all the time in the big ivory towers of the big boys out there, they fall into the same traps, because their brains, emotional centers, especially those governing fear and reward, evolved in well to ensure survival, not to optimize investment performance, or they chase some of the dumbest things on the face of the earth. How some of these people get away with it. I have no earthly idea.
11:43
The abrupt collapse of first brands group, a US auto parts supplier that filed for bankruptcy with over 10 billion in liabilities, triggered substantial losses at several major financial firms because many lenders and investors failed to conduct proper due diligence. They were blindsided by the company's opaque, off balance sheet financing and unsecured receivables, exposing them to risks they either underestimated, never saw, or they allowed their emotions to guide their decisions after extensive courses of wine and
12:15
dine. Now look, the most successful investors. I don't care who they are where they come from, are not those who claim to predict the future, but those who manage their own behavioral conditioning. They understand that markets are cyclical. Emotions well are contagious, and long term wealth is built on resisting the urge to react, have love's discovery reminds us that our instincts can be trained, but also retrained by identifying whether our decisions are driven by Here you go. Facts, fear or folly. Now say that with me, facts, fear or folly. If you're a pancake eating head coach in the NFL, it's facts, fear or folly. Reference to the movie Draft Day with Kevin Costner. So look, you me, we, we can all do this, we can learn to silence the bells that lead to costly mistakes. At the very least, find people like me who will help talk you off the edge of the cliff and also to tell you it's okay to stand on the observation deck and look at the Grand Canyon and get one hell of a view real investing folks. Well, real investing success begins not in the markets, but in the mind with that typical New and Tyler too. I'm out here later by
13:56
that concludes the Paul Truesdell podcast. For more information, visit Paul truesdell.com now here's a disclaimer. It's rather long and frankly, a bit insane, but it's what we have to do for the dumbest among us who like to go through life as endless victims. Okay, here it goes. Due to our extensive holdings and our clients, you should assume that we have a position in all companies discussed, and that a conflict of interest exists by listening, reading or using this document, video, podcast and or website in any manner you understand, the information presented is provided for informational purposes Only. That's right, for informational purposes only, and you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Public and group informational items should never be considered professional advice. Obviously, nothing said, written or otherwise communicated should be construed as an author. Offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell a security naturally and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Like you haven't heard or read that a million times before and listen up. We do not provide tax, legal or psychological advice. Yes, yes, we do not have a couch and pillow with your name on it, and so nothing here in fancy word time, nothing here in constitutes advice or is a substitute for professional medical advice. Diagnosis or treatment. Always seek the advice of your doctor or other qualified health care providers with any questions you may have regarding a medical condition, never disregard professional medical advice or delay seeking it because of something you read, viewed, heard or thought you saw or heard, if you are in distress. Call 911, if you are normal and want to do better in life. Call 352-612-1000,
16:08
now, how about that? Did you chuckle? Good, But wait, there's more. Do not listen to the Paul Truesdell podcast while standing on one leg on the top step of a 10 foot ladder during a hurricane and while blindfolded. Seriously, don't do that. If you are doing that, please get down safely and check yourself into a psychiatric ward now. And honestly, don't do anything else that is utterly stupid. Seriously, being stupid is bad. Really, really bad. That's why smart people listen to the Paul Truesdell podcast, and super smart people are clients of one or more of the Truesdell companies. Okay, enough of this. Toodles,
17:04
the next casual cocktail conversation will take place on Sunday, October 26 and will take place in Ocala at the StoneWater club. Although all reservations have been taken, we are accepting stand by reservations. Should one or more confirmed reservations cancel, and this does happen from time to time. So call or text, 352-612-1000, for more information, visit Paul truesdell.com forward slash events this Sunday, October 26 during a casual cocktail conversation with Paul Truesdell, we will hold a special discussion on non insurance long term care planning. The conversation will focus on practical legal and financial strategies that help families maintain control without depending on traditional insurance products. We will explore private family care agreements, charitable trusts and various other trust structures and income tools that meet Medicaid and tax requirements. The goal is to understand how these solutions work together to protect both care and cash flow. Our casual conversations are clear professional conversations designed to give you confidence and control over your long term future. The next opportunity to attend this conversation topic will be announced later this year and will take place next year, in 2026 you
The Paul Truesdell podcast marks its 500th episode, a milestone that reflects not only consistency but a deep commitment to thoughtful, fact based analysis and the pursuit of genuine understanding in an often superficial world across hundreds of episodes, Paul grant Truesdell has provided listeners with something rare in modern media context, continuity and clarity. He does not chase headlines. He connects them. He does not amplify noise. He distills meaning
0:33
through changing markets, political upheavals, social realignments and technological revolutions. Truesdells voice and the voices that join him have remained steady. Each episode serves as an artifact of its time, capturing not just events but the thought process behind them. Listeners have come to expect depth without pretension, humor without cynicism, and a perspective shaped by experience, not agenda.
1:02
This 500th episode continues that tradition. The featured artifact and exploration of Pavlov, conditioning and behavioral finance reminds audiences Why truesdells commentary endures. He bridges psychology and economics, human nature and market cycles, reason and reaction. His work shows that knowledge is not static. It is conditioned, refined and tested by time.
1:29
Reaching 500 episodes is more than an achievement of production. It is an act of endurance. It speaks to a relentless curiosity and a belief that people still crave ideas with substance each recording, whether delivered solo or through the blended tones of multiple AI voices, demonstrates that technology can enhance communication without erasing authenticity.
1:51
Looking ahead, the Paul Truesdell podcast remains committed to delivering real insight for those who think critically and refuse to be conditioned by noise. 500 episodes stand as evidence that persistence and principles still matter, and that informed voices, when guided by integrity and intellect, can endure through every market cycle, every storm and every bell that tries to trigger a reflex instead of reason.
2:31
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, one and all, get ready for the big event. And so you ask, what is the big event? Well, it's none other than the Paul Truesdell podcast, and so let's get this show on the road, 54321,
2:56
around the turn of the 20th century, Ivan Pavlov's work with dogs forever changed how we understand behavior. In his landmark experiment, Pavlov discovered that when he repeatedly rang a bell while feeding his dogs, they eventually began to salivate at the sound alone, even when no food followed, what began as a psychological study of digestion became one of the most profound lessons in psychology that living beings can be conditioned to respond automatically to external cues, even when those cues no longer align with
3:44
reality, no longer aligned with reality. Now, that
3:49
lesson extends far beyond the laboratory in modern finance investors, and I'm talking about every single one of us, without an exception, are conditioned by repeated exposure to certain emotional and financial stimuli. Our reactions to market movements, economic headlines and even the endless political rhetoric are built over years and sometimes well decades. Each experience creates an association that shapes how we perceive risk and reward. Let me repeat that each and every thing we see, listen, hear, touch and just simply feel, creates an association that shapes how we perceive risk and reward, like Pavlov's dogs, we react not to objective reality put well, but to the bell that reminds us of the past gains or losses that we've experienced.
4:56
We often react not to objective reality. But to the bell that reminds us of past gains or losses
5:04
in behavioral finance, these reactions fall broadly into three categories, and so these are my three facts, fear and folly. Those guided by facts tend to analyze information logically. They rely on fundamentals, earnings, cash flow, valuations, and maintain perspective during turbulent times. They are disciplined investors who understand that volatility is temporary, but long term compounding is permanent. They may delegate, they may retain, but they are focused on reality and facts, and so they are disciplined investors who understand that volatility Well, it's temporary, but long term compounding is permanent. Now those who are ruled by fear remember pain more vividly than profit, a market correction or recession can leave lasting emotional scars, leading to excessive caution, missed opportunities or paralyzing indecision. This is not uncommon. And then there are the folly F, O, L, L, Y, folly, the impulse driven behavior that emerges when greed, speculation or social contagion overrides good, solid judgment. Now let's talk about some examples. Well, that includes buying technology stocks in 1999 because everyone else was getting rich. Remember that stupid ad with the guy who held a sock with a couple of dots on it and called himself a sock puppy, and they were selling sock puppy, dog food, whatever. But I digress. So it's 1999 and everyone was chasing the get rich schemes out there, or today, chasing cryptocurrencies at their peak in 2021 despite the obvious signs of a mania, yes, just like the tulip mania, the
7:21
tulip mania, which swept through the Netherlands in the 1630s was one of history's first recorded financial bubbles, when the price of tulip bulbs soared to absurd heights before collapsing overnight, reminding the world that emotion and speculation can outpace reason and reality,
7:38
These reactions are not random. They are the direct result of conditioning. For instance, an investor who sold in panic during the 2008 financial crisis may have been rewarded in the short term by avoiding further losses. That emotional relief becomes reinforcement, a signal that selling at the first sign of trouble is the right move. Aha, not so fast. Buckaroo. Years later, when markets fluctuate, that same investor instinctively repeats the behavior, expecting the same relief, even if it means missing a major recovery. On the other hand, an investor who bought during the post crash rebound might have developed a dangerous confidence of always buying the dip, conditioning themselves to assume every downturn will recover instantly. It doesn't until it does not and they're a little bit older, and there's not a lot of time to recover.
8:51
If you know him, you've heard him say timing in time in timing out. Paul is the master at timing out. Let's continue.
9:02
The long term effects of such conditioning can be, well, rather profound. You see, over time, emotional reflexes shape portfolio outcomes more than the actual markets do. Fearful investors often end up underexposed equities and lose purchasing power to inflation. Those driven by the folly may Chase every new trend and eventually destroy their capital through overconfidence, even fact based investors, if not mindful, can fall prey to recency bias. Recency bias, the tendency to give greater importance to the latest event while forgetting the broader historical cycle after long bull markets, people believe that good times will never end despite corrections. They assume. And recovery is impossible, and so recency bias magnifies the impact of conditioning because it continually reinforces emotional patterns. After a few good years, the bell, Ding, ding, ding, ding, ding that triggers greed grows louder and louder, ding, ding, ding, ding, ding, after a few bad months, the bell that triggers fear, ding, ding, ding, ding, becomes deafening. Ding, ding, ding, ding, the challenge for advisors is to help clients recognize these bells and recondition their thinking. I'm dead serious about this. That's a major part of what we do. Think of it like this, our process, which we've trademarked and patented, Camelot, common sense, advice, management, education and what encouragement with logic, organization and technology. That encouragement was there placed there deliberately with a lot of thought and consideration. It's not a matter of intelligence, but awareness. Even seasoned professionals, and we see this all the time in the big ivory towers of the big boys out there, they fall into the same traps, because their brains, emotional centers, especially those governing fear and reward, evolved in well to ensure survival, not to optimize investment performance, or they chase some of the dumbest things on the face of the earth. How some of these people get away with it. I have no earthly idea.
11:43
The abrupt collapse of first brands group, a US auto parts supplier that filed for bankruptcy with over 10 billion in liabilities, triggered substantial losses at several major financial firms because many lenders and investors failed to conduct proper due diligence. They were blindsided by the company's opaque, off balance sheet financing and unsecured receivables, exposing them to risks they either underestimated, never saw, or they allowed their emotions to guide their decisions after extensive courses of wine and
12:15
dine. Now look, the most successful investors. I don't care who they are where they come from, are not those who claim to predict the future, but those who manage their own behavioral conditioning. They understand that markets are cyclical. Emotions well are contagious, and long term wealth is built on resisting the urge to react, have love's discovery reminds us that our instincts can be trained, but also retrained by identifying whether our decisions are driven by Here you go. Facts, fear or folly. Now say that with me, facts, fear or folly. If you're a pancake eating head coach in the NFL, it's facts, fear or folly. Reference to the movie Draft Day with Kevin Costner. So look, you me, we, we can all do this, we can learn to silence the bells that lead to costly mistakes. At the very least, find people like me who will help talk you off the edge of the cliff and also to tell you it's okay to stand on the observation deck and look at the Grand Canyon and get one hell of a view real investing folks. Well, real investing success begins not in the markets, but in the mind with that typical New and Tyler too. I'm out here later by
13:56
that concludes the Paul Truesdell podcast. For more information, visit Paul truesdell.com now here's a disclaimer. It's rather long and frankly, a bit insane, but it's what we have to do for the dumbest among us who like to go through life as endless victims. Okay, here it goes. Due to our extensive holdings and our clients, you should assume that we have a position in all companies discussed, and that a conflict of interest exists by listening, reading or using this document, video, podcast and or website in any manner you understand, the information presented is provided for informational purposes Only. That's right, for informational purposes only, and you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy. Public and group informational items should never be considered professional advice. Obviously, nothing said, written or otherwise communicated should be construed as an author. Offer, recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell a security naturally and past performance is not a guarantee of future performance. Like you haven't heard or read that a million times before and listen up. We do not provide tax, legal or psychological advice. Yes, yes, we do not have a couch and pillow with your name on it, and so nothing here in fancy word time, nothing here in constitutes advice or is a substitute for professional medical advice. Diagnosis or treatment. Always seek the advice of your doctor or other qualified health care providers with any questions you may have regarding a medical condition, never disregard professional medical advice or delay seeking it because of something you read, viewed, heard or thought you saw or heard, if you are in distress. Call 911, if you are normal and want to do better in life. Call 352-612-1000,
16:08
now, how about that? Did you chuckle? Good, But wait, there's more. Do not listen to the Paul Truesdell podcast while standing on one leg on the top step of a 10 foot ladder during a hurricane and while blindfolded. Seriously, don't do that. If you are doing that, please get down safely and check yourself into a psychiatric ward now. And honestly, don't do anything else that is utterly stupid. Seriously, being stupid is bad. Really, really bad. That's why smart people listen to the Paul Truesdell podcast, and super smart people are clients of one or more of the Truesdell companies. Okay, enough of this. Toodles,
17:04
the next casual cocktail conversation will take place on Sunday, October 26 and will take place in Ocala at the StoneWater club. Although all reservations have been taken, we are accepting stand by reservations. Should one or more confirmed reservations cancel, and this does happen from time to time. So call or text, 352-612-1000, for more information, visit Paul truesdell.com forward slash events this Sunday, October 26 during a casual cocktail conversation with Paul Truesdell, we will hold a special discussion on non insurance long term care planning. The conversation will focus on practical legal and financial strategies that help families maintain control without depending on traditional insurance products. We will explore private family care agreements, charitable trusts and various other trust structures and income tools that meet Medicaid and tax requirements. The goal is to understand how these solutions work together to protect both care and cash flow. Our casual conversations are clear professional conversations designed to give you confidence and control over your long term future. The next opportunity to attend this conversation topic will be announced later this year and will take place next year, in 2026 you