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Podcast Personality
Paul Grant Truesdell | Founder & CEO
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Rough Notes
Here is a list of the 50 largest one-day percentage drops in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from 1926 to April 3, 2025:
1. October 19, 1987: -22.61%
2. March 16, 2020: -12.93%
3. October 28, 1929: -12.82%
4. October 29, 1929: -11.73%
5. March 12, 2020: -9.99%
6. November 6, 1929: -9.92%
7. December 18, 1899: -8.72%
8. August 12, 1932: -8.40%
9. March 14, 1907: -8.29%
10. October 26, 1987: -8.04%
11. October 15, 2008: -7.87%
12. July 21, 1933: -7.84%
13. March 9, 2020: -7.79%
14. October 18, 1937: -7.75%
15. December 1, 2008: -7.70%
16. October 9, 2008: -7.33%
17. February 1, 1917: -7.24%
18. October 27, 1997: -7.18%
19. October 5, 1932: -7.15%
20. September 17, 2001: -7.13%
21. June 11, 2020: -6.90%
22. August 31, 1998: -6.37%
23. September 24, 1931: -6.35%
24. March 18, 2020: -6.30%
25. September 29, 2008: -6.98%
26. October 22, 2008: -5.69%
27. April 3, 2025: -5.60%
28. November 20, 2008: -5.56%
29. October 27, 2008: -5.41%
30. September 17, 2008: -4.96%
31. October 9, 2007: -4.91%
32. August 10, 2011: -4.62%
33. February 5, 2018: -4.60%
34. August 8, 2011: -4.31%
35. April 14, 2000: -4.16%
36. October 13, 1989: -4.02%
37. April 3, 2025: -3.98%
38. June 24, 2016: -3.94%
39. September 13, 2022: -3.94%
40. October 19, 1989: -3.83%
41. August 4, 2011: -3.68%
42. December 11, 2008: -3.68%
43. March 22, 2001: -3.58%
44. February 27, 2007: -3.29%
45. August 14, 2019: -3.05%
46. May 17, 2017: -1.78%
47. April 15, 2013: -1.79%
48. June 6, 2012: -1.84%
49. November 9, 2016: -1.85%
50. August 24, 2015: -1.86%
Note: The percentage changes are based on the closing values of the DJIA on the respective dates. The data above is compiled from historical records of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
0:00
Good morning, good afternoon or good evening. I'm going to drink a little bit out of my dad cup, because we're going to call this episode, dad. I don't care if you're 100 or 10 and everything in between. I'm talking especially to those of you who are well, they haven't seen the markets jump around, or you've forgotten about the markets jumping around. Those of you who are in your 30s, 40s and 50s, especially who behave like AOC, you know that Congresswoman that says things like we've never seen this before. Or if you're a writer for The Wall Street Journal who did a pretty dirty deed, described this as one of the worst routes in the stock market history, hogwash. I want to give you some context. My mother and father were born in 1915 My grandfather was born in the 1860s I was born in the 1950s now the 13th a 16th Amendment came out in 1913 just before we had World War One. And my father went through all that, and my mother, my mother and father experienced a big Spanish flu. Can you say Spanish? Yeah, you can. I was born in 1958 the year of the second wholesale rewrite of the tax code. I started in this business as an investment advisor and wealth advisor and manager. Well, October 1, 1986 that was the day of the Tax Reform Act that went into effect, courtesy of Tip O'Neill and Ronald Reagan, when Republicans and Democrats could get along. You know, right after I started, we had a big thing happen on October 19, 1987 something called, well, Black Monday. Now I'm going to talk to you a little bit about what happened today, but first, I want to give you some context, and I want to give you a lot of advice here. And before I do that, I'm gonna drop a little disclaimer in here. And here it is, you
2:07
are listening to the Paul Truesdell podcast sponsored by Truesdell wealth and the other Truesdell companies. Note, due to our extensive holdings and our clients always assume that we have a position in all companies discussed and that a conflict of interest exists, the information presented is provided for entertainment and informational purposes only. Truesdell wealth is a registered investment advisor.
2:37
Okay, let's get started. The biggest one day drop in the stock market was October 19, 1987 in one day, the stock market dropped 22.61% now we're going to talk about percentages. We're not going to talk about dollar amounts. We're not going to talk about points. We're going to talk about percentages, because that's where the rubber meets the road. Now we've never seen something like what happened today? Well, I don't know about that, on March 16 in the year 2021, day drop 12.93% I want you to think about how much the market has grown, and various other instruments have grown, stocks, bonds, real estate, etc, in the last, oh, four to five years. But I also want you to know that when the stock market dropped in 1987 October 19, at the end of the year, stock market was actually positive. You see all of the Chicken Littles out there, the lemmings that follow the Pied Pipers in the mainstream. I call it lame stream media. They don't want you to know that. Remember, if it bleeds, it leads, beer cells next, october 28 1929 market dropped 12.82% october 29 1929 it dropped 11.73% those are two bad days being a market. Oh, Paul, that was so long ago. What about March 12? 20, 29.99% Oh. And then a few days later, like I told you, March 16, 12.93% and I remember back then, every single person was saying, the world's going to end. Oh, my God, didn't end. Did it? It didn't end. There's something that comes from education experience and having a whole lot of well, calm, cool, collected experience, really does? You know, like having a dad. Oh, but it's different this time. They probably said that on November 6, 1929 when the market dropped 9.92% or on December 18, 1899 when it dropped 8.72% my grandfather probably lost his mind back then. He probably took everything out of the market. Put everything in a bucket, buried that bucket in the back of the farm, and said, You know what? We're going to wait for a whole long later, and we're going to dig that money up. August 12, 1932, 8.4% these are all negatives. How about March 14? 1907, oh, long time ago. 8.29% down. Oh, yeah. Remember I talked earlier? The biggest drop, the biggest drop when I say that was, Oh, that's right, October 19, 1987 down. 22.61% and the 10th largest was october 26 1987 it dropped another 8.4% Chicken Little Chicken Little Chicken Little run for the hill. Sell everything, because everything is going to blow up. Headlines are going to get you. They're going to make you in the poor house. If you keep following the headlines, you're going to go to the poor house. You know, I worked on the election of a fellow by name of Gerald Ford. I was a Reagan guy. I was a member of the Young Americans for freedom, and back in the 70s, my guy was, well, Ronald Reagan, when Reagan didn't get the nomination for the Republicans back in 1976 Well, we went ahead and we worked our tails off for Ford. We almost beat Carter, but wasn't in the cards. Carter got it. But here's the thing, when Reagan then defeated Carter and became president of the United States, it's 1980 and his eight years, one of the things he said when he was at the Berlin Wall, he said, If not us, who, if not. Now, when I'm going to repeat that, Reagan said, if not us, who, if not. Now, when a lot of this, everybody's blaming on Donald Trump, oh, tariff says tariffs that everything's going to fall apart. Well, yeah, Gomer, things are going to cost a little bit more as we begin to ramp up manufacturing the United States. Because, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, peace. Peace is an anomaly. Always has been, always will be. And while Eisenhower warned us in his farewell address about the military industrial complex, well, guess what it is? What it is, if you want to be at peace, you gotta have a heck of a military and the reality is, yeah, things have gotten out of control. Oh, but let's tear up every Tesla we ever get our hands on, because, oh, Elon Musk is bad. The people doing that, they're paid. A lot of them are just paid. These are paid agitators by all these democratic wackadoodles out there who don't care about you and I. They want the status quo. They want to line their pockets. Oh, but Trump is lining his pockets, folks. Let me make it really clear to you, if you have a chance, go study Grover, Cleveland, first Democrat to be elected to the presidency of the United States. Okay, after Reconstruction, read about him and read about how he became president and what his primary focus was. Read all about Tammany Hall. Read about all about the spoil system. Read about how bureaucrats were running everything and damn near making it go broken. Read about the tariff system back then. I'm serious. You know you may not like it, but tariffs work because these other countries are being subsidized by their governments, and they're doing tariffs against us so well, Hell's Bells. What's good for the goose is good for the gander, but not if you hate Trump. October 15, 2008 down, 7.87% july 21 1933 down 7.84% hey, here's another one. March 9, 2020, down 7.79% but wait a minute. Wait a minute. Today was the worst day ever. No Another one was October 18, 1937 October again, down 7.5% Hey, how about this one? Do you remember 2008 well, on December 1, 2008 That's right. December 1 down 7.7% How about October 9, 2008 That's right. Boys and girls, down 7.33% and we were all crying. We were all saying, Oh, the whole world's going to end now. You're sitting back right now going, Oh, Paul, this time is different. It's different. I can't believe you're saying that I've lost so much money. Well, if you've lost so much money, that means you didn't have enough cash. That means you were overly invested. You may have had an investment advisor who's working assets under management. Had you overly invested? Well, good luck with that. Do you have enough cash to go into the market now, when it's down, are you going to punt when everything's down, you see it's called buy low, sell high, buy low, sell high, not sell low and buy high. That's the opposite of what you want to do. And the reality is, most investors. Is pretty substantially underperformed the indexes, because you panic and you have investment advisors, managers of monies in their 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s, who don't have the experience to go, yeah, here we go again. What we gonna do? Well, sometimes you can do the Muhammad Ali the do the rope a dope. Do you know who Muhammad Ali is. Do you know who Joe Frazier is? Do you know who George Foreman is? Do you know what the battle in Manila is? Do you know the the Congo, or wherever it was, of the Rumble in the Jungle? Do you know what the rope a dope is? Oh, let's continue. So wait. I left off with October 9, 2008 7.33 How about February 1? 1917 war down. 7.24% Hey, how about this one? October 27 1997 the whole world's on fire. Everything's going to end down 7.18% we're now at the 18th level started out when I started in the business. 1987 Okay, and we're working our way down. Number 19 is October 5. 1932 7.15% when the market reopened after 911 on September 17, 2001 Oh, no, down, 7.13% look, I'm having a little fun with this, because I enjoy these kinds of things, and I realize the overwhelming majority of the people who are watching this have checked out a long time ago, too long, didn't read, didn't Watch, didn't view, that's okay, oh. June 11, 2020, down 6.9% August, 31 1998 down 6.37% September, 24 1931 down 6.35%
but Paul, but Paul today was the worst in the world. Well, yeah, okay, it wasn't such a good day. If you go back from 19, from 2020, to today. But let's look at it a little bigger. Oh, but global warming in the last 100 years? Oh, we don't even have good statics, but statistics. But in the last 20 or 30 years, we're going to burn or we're going to what are we doing? Are we going to burn up? Are we going to freeze? We're going to have a lot of change. Just remember, Mr. Green genes, a fellow by name of Al Gore, screwed you and I because he started a movement, this green movement. And so when you have people that take very narrow data sets, when the world has been around for a long, long time, and oh, but we're destroying everything, but we're going to take a blind eye to India and China. You see where I'm going with this. I feel sometimes like George Carlin. I mean, we need a George Carlin, gosh darn. I wish he hadn't died. My favorite comedian, okay, March 18, 2020, down, 6.3% we're at number 24 How about September? 29 2008 6.98 How about october 22 2008 down 5.69% oh, wait a minute, we're coming up on number 27 let's see. Today is Thursday, April 3, 2025 we're down 5.6% and we're at number 27 the 27th largest one day drop in the stock market was today. Today. Oh, 27th you know, if you're the 27th best basketball player trying out for a basketball team, you ain't getting none. Okay, you ain't getting none. I mean, this is bad, but is it that bad? Well, we'll see what happens. Oh, but Paul, the market's been down bad all year. Yeah, things can you know, I got news for you when I work out and lift weights, and I've been lifting weights now, let's see. Let me think about this. I have been lifting weights for 55 years, 55 years, and you know what I remember 55 years ago, when I first started bench pressing on my back porch and learning how to curl and doing presses and all that kind of stuff, had a straight bar. Didn't have a curl bar, didn't have all the different things, man, I was tired as a punk kid. That's tired. And all the neighborhood kids came around. Hey, Paul's got a weight bench and weight set and everything else. You know what? I'm in my 60s, and when I hit lift weights, I get tired, and I gotta sit down and rest. You know what? I went jogging this morning, and I don't run like I used to do a lot of walking, little bit of jogging, no running. Kind older. I'm an old guy. Got bad knees, you know what? When I got done, I had I worked up a sweat. I sat down, relaxed for a minute, cool down, took a shower. Hmm, you see the cycle we're doing here, number 27 hey, let's take a look at number 28 let's keep on going. November 20, 2008 5.56 October, 27 2000 Eight, 5.41 September 17, 2008 4.96 man, 2008 was bad. Oh, that's right, that's when we all got screwed, because Congress said, if you can fog a mirror, you gotta give somebody a loan. Dei galore. Dei galore, yeah, had a fellow by name of Barney Frank and his cohort in the Senate passed laws that, basically, banks and everybody else had to give loans. Hmm, let's see. So back in the day, if I'm a bank, what I did is I would underwrite you. Are you good enough to get a loan? And if I underwrote you and then I gave you the money. We kept that loan at the bank. And one of the things your bank president and your branch managers would do is they drive by your house and look at it, make sure that it was maintained properly. If not, they pick up the phone and call us, hey, you know, Jethro, we need to have a conversation. And you'd come by and say, house looks pretty rough there, boy, you got to get this thing cleaned up. You know, we're holding the note on this thing. That's the way it used to be. But see, what did we do? We had to securitize things. What does that mean? Well, you get a whole bunch of people, and they want loans, and if they can fog a mirror, we're going to give them money. They are not qualified for peanuts to get a loan, but that's okay. That's okay. We're gonna get them that loan, and then what we gonna do? We gonna hold that loan. Oh, no, no, no. Uh, banks and mortgage companies are now in the business of bundling. That's right, we're gonna bundle all this garbajo beans together, put them all together, and then we're gonna turn it into a collateralized mortgage obligation. Oh, that sounds really good. Collateralized mortgage obligation. We're gonna create these things called tranches. That's a fancy French word. That's what we're gonna do. And then we're gonna bundle them up as mutual funds and exchange traded funds. Back in the day, those are mutual funds. Then we're gonna do is we're gonna sell those to the consumer, and what the consumer doesn't buy? Well, hails, bills, we're managing a pension, and we're managing a whole bunch of different monies, and we'll put them in there, because it's okay. We're now getting fees for assets under management. We got fees. We created the product. Hey, we just got a whole lot of money, and we're calling it this fancy thing, and at the wheel was, let's see a whole bunch of people at the Treasury and Federal Reserve and in the White House. Oh, yeah, they're asleep at the wheel. Yeah, everything's fine. Nothing to see here. Don't worry about it, yeah. So Bernanke and, man, all those people, all of them, bunch of dirt bags. Okay? All of them. So that's what was going on. 2008 and I hope you kept your money in that tin can in the backyard, because, man, oh man, you the market's going to go to hell in a hand basket. You know that right? October 9, 2007 4.91% August 10, 2011 4.61% February 5, 2018 down, 4.6% How about again? August 8, 2011 four point what? Three 1% not quite April's fool, but on April 14, 2,004.16% folks, I'm telling you, it's been rough. Oh, we've never seen it this rough. I'm at number 36 October 13, 1989 down, 4.02% I'm not done. I'm not done. April, 3, 2005 3.98% How about June, 24, night, 2016 September, 13, 2022 October, 19, 1989 How about August 4, 2011 How about December? The 11th, 2008 March, 22 2001 February. 27 2000 August. 14, 2019 May, 17, 2017 april 15, 2013 these are all periods where we lost 3% now we're in 1.78 1.79 1.84
look the 50th largest drop was on August 24 2015 1.8% and if you go back and look at the headlines, on August 25 2015 Chicken Little oh my god, the world's going to fall apart. And a lot of these people who are in political office, think about this. Think about it. They were kids. See, a lot of folks haven't experienced a lot of the problems we have out there. I have, I have, you know, the first day I started in law enforcement back in the 1970s one of the first calls we got was to back up a bunch of officers. It was a massive fight at a county fair. This is up in Wisconsin, and I got there and I earned my stripes day one, and I had, well, I got into the brawl, and my left knee was so tore up. It looked like someone took a. Uh oh, gosh, it's okay. They took a wire brush and just scraped everything, and I got a whole lot of scars on there. Probably the first time I busted my kneecap hurt like all all Dickens. I'm glad I hurt my knee, because I didn't realize what was sticking out of the left side of my left leg. Yeah, left side of my left leg. We're over here. We got done. I'm handcuffed this guy, and he was kind of wrestling around, and I grabbed a hold of him. Big old sergeant. Big boy, now I'm six. Used to be six two. I'm closer to six one. Now I've always weighed about anywhere from 215 to 230 and I'm losing weight and getting thinner intentionally. And this big boy, he was a good 300 pounder. He's a good Wisconsin farm boy. He puts his hand on my shoulder and says, Son, you feeling okay? Yeah. Damn. What a way to start start. The job goes well. Why you come over here and sit down? So why? He said, Don't look down, son. He said, But he got you've been stabbed. Well, what do you do? I look down one damn. I got a knife sticking on my leg. So I walk over and sat down, and he said, You know what? Sit like. You're a girl riding a horse, and get in the car. We're gonna take you over to the dock. And he literally took me and got me stitched up. Doc pulled the damn thing out. And he said, Why didn't you pull this out? I don't know. He told me to sit here. Yeah, you'll be fine. Got stitched up, put a band aid on the thing, went back to the station, worked out my shift, filled out the forms, came back to work next day, yeah, didn't take time off and do all those tetanus shot things and everything else. Oh, I'm not saying that this was the way it was. Is good, but that, ladies and gentlemen, was my day one, oh man, I had a black guy. My lips were all busted. We we beat the dog out of them, and they beat the dog out of us. Cool. Now, if that was your first day in the job, you probably quit. Most people quit. When I worked in law enforcement, I had a short period of time I worked as a field training officer, and I used to take my rookies, and I used to take them out to Dale Mabry, right next to the stadium. And for those of you who remember this, you know, I did it every single your first day. Oh, I would say, how you doing? I would be really nice. Now, some field instructors were really mean to the rookies. Oh, I was not. I'd get a cup of coffee. Oh, I'm going to be your friend. I get you all nice and calm, then I'd get you out on del Mabry. We're heading north. We'd get off on the east side. This is when the old Sam Burro, not the current stadium. And I'd get out and say, Come on, I want to show you something. And you get out all smiley because you're brand new. You got your bad uniform. Looks really good. And I say, now I'm going to show you what this is. And I would be really sarcastic I say now, this is a police car. It's a lot like every other car on the road. Now, those things right there, those are called headlights. And see those yellow things, those them yellow things, Texan coming out. Them yellow things. Those are blinkers. And when you turn it on in the car, it blinks red in the back and yellow in front. Now that big shiny thing that's a bumper. Okay, are you following me and see that thing is all the checker that's a grill. Back in the days, we used to drive dodge diplomats, so damn embarrassing. About that time the rookie would get I just kept doing this. I It always worked. About that time you would hear, yeah, I know. And I'd smile, and my face would then go dead, very vicious looking, and I take my hand my squad car, and I would hit as hard as I could on the hood of the car, and I would scream at them, I'm not going to use the language I use. And I would scream and swear like a maniac, bang, I just got shot. Half the time they would panic, what? Bang, I just got shot again. Where are we? Bang, I got hit again. And then I would say, what are you going to tell my family? Where are we? Only one rookie ever could say we're by the stadium. Everybody else panicked. Look, that would continue, and then I would do my bumper Morgan, and I would get in their face, and I'd be pretty damn mean, and I'd say, you SOB this and everything else. You think you're qualified to work the street. You don't even know where we're at. Turn around and look, we're next to the stadium. We're by Dale Mabry. You're too stupid to get on the radio, too stupid to role play here to know, get in the car and sit down. You get in the car and sit down. And I always drove to pop and Sons sit down. They'd sit down. We'd order something to eat. I don't think any of them ever said they want anything. To eat. They basically had their stomach in their in their throat, I tell the lady, you know, two orders, eggs, hash browns. I like grits, by the way, by the way, grits always take grits, bacon, a cup of coffee. We have a lot of coffee. Bring a pot. Then I said. And I'd be real fatherly again, just like I am tonight. Okay, look, our job is to do what we can do. We ain't gonna say to the world, but we're gonna go home every night, and if somebody gets my back and gets on me, your job is to get them off of me until you can handle yourself on the street. And I'm not gonna have a rookies killed on the street. You understand that. I'm gonna teach you how to fight, I'm gonna teach you how to handle a call, and pretty soon we're going to volunteer for every damn fight call we get, because as soon as you understand how to fight and what it's all about, then you'll make it. You either quit or you'll make it. Well, I had a couple of guys who walked off the job. We got into fights. Hell's Bells I ain't doing this stuff. Had a young lady beat the Holy hell. She couldn't believe what happened, cried and everything else turned out to be one of the best cops ever had. I gotta tell you what. Here's the thing, don't panic. Stock market goes up and stock market goes down. Presidents come and presidents go, members of Congress, MS, obese, whatever, and somebody's actually getting rid of the dead weight and cut in the bureaucracy, the media. Remember the lame L, A, M, E, the lame stream media, if it bleeds it leads, bad news always sells, but if you're going to govern your life based upon that, you're a damn fool. Yeah, maybe we have a rough year. Maybe we have some tariffs, maybe cars and a bunch of things cost more. But if you're living on the edge, well, there's only three things in the world. Well, four, actually you can do make more, spend less, adjust your expectations, or do a combination of the four, you'll make it. People are not starving in this country. This isn't Uganda. It's not the Congo. We don't have a bunch of Islamists running around with rifles shooting everybody. And yes, Biden, hey, Biden's gone. So you can speak your mind, say whatever you want. You can say Trump is the dumbest guy on the face of the earth. But I'm going to ask you this, if not us, who, if not now, when, and are you that selfish that you don't give a damn about your children and grandchildren? I'm a dad. I do so with that, I hope you understand what the purpose of this is, chill out. There's a lot of opportunities to make money when the market goes down. You got cash. Winner, winner. Chicken dinner with that tip, a new Tyler, too. I'm out here later by
27:29
this concludes the Paul Truesdell podcast. However, before you go see the show notes for this podcast, for special offers in person and online events and a variety of booklets on a wide variety of investment income, estate, risk and overall wealth issues to schedule a conversation with Team Truesdell text or call, 352-612-1000, the Paul Truesdell podcast is available on nearly all podcast players, such as Apple, Google, Spotify, as well as on Paul's personal website, Paul truesdell.com
28:07
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28:19
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28:33
Waiter. Waiter, Phil, did you have a season four service? I'm going to call a manager. Take it easy. Walt, what's mostly wrong is your grout. I'm sorry, Phil, but my digestion is so upset. What you may need for your poor digestion is something that works after nature's own order, try Carter's little liver pill. Good advice, when your digestion is upset and you feel headache and irritable, take Carter's little liver pills. You see each day, nature normally produces about two pints of a vital digestive juice to help digest your food. If nature fails, your food may remain undigested, leaving you headachy and irritable. To feel cheerful and happy again, take Carter's little liver pills. They increase the flow of this vital digestive juice quickly, often in as little as 30 minutes, and you're on the road to feeling better. Don't depend on artificial aids to counteract indigestion when Carter's little liver pills aid digestion after nature's own order, take Carter's little liver pills as directed. Get them at any drugstore. Only 25 like to start with a list of people I can do without a proctologist with poor depth perception,
29:46
any woman whose hobby is breast feeding zoo animals, a cross eyed nun with a bull whip and a bottle of gin, a waitress with a visible infection on her serving hand. And any man whose arm hair completely covers his wrist watch. Okay, That's enough of that You
Transcribed by https://otter.ai
Friday, April 18th, 2025 at 6:30 pm - Reservations Available
Fixed Cost Real Estate - The No Commission Listing Agent Process
Casual Cocktail Conversation at the Stonewater Club
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Rough Notes
Here is a list of the 50 largest one-day percentage drops in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) from 1926 to April 3, 2025:
1. October 19, 1987: -22.61%
2. March 16, 2020: -12.93%
3. October 28, 1929: -12.82%
4. October 29, 1929: -11.73%
5. March 12, 2020: -9.99%
6. November 6, 1929: -9.92%
7. December 18, 1899: -8.72%
8. August 12, 1932: -8.40%
9. March 14, 1907: -8.29%
10. October 26, 1987: -8.04%
11. October 15, 2008: -7.87%
12. July 21, 1933: -7.84%
13. March 9, 2020: -7.79%
14. October 18, 1937: -7.75%
15. December 1, 2008: -7.70%
16. October 9, 2008: -7.33%
17. February 1, 1917: -7.24%
18. October 27, 1997: -7.18%
19. October 5, 1932: -7.15%
20. September 17, 2001: -7.13%
21. June 11, 2020: -6.90%
22. August 31, 1998: -6.37%
23. September 24, 1931: -6.35%
24. March 18, 2020: -6.30%
25. September 29, 2008: -6.98%
26. October 22, 2008: -5.69%
27. April 3, 2025: -5.60%
28. November 20, 2008: -5.56%
29. October 27, 2008: -5.41%
30. September 17, 2008: -4.96%
31. October 9, 2007: -4.91%
32. August 10, 2011: -4.62%
33. February 5, 2018: -4.60%
34. August 8, 2011: -4.31%
35. April 14, 2000: -4.16%
36. October 13, 1989: -4.02%
37. April 3, 2025: -3.98%
38. June 24, 2016: -3.94%
39. September 13, 2022: -3.94%
40. October 19, 1989: -3.83%
41. August 4, 2011: -3.68%
42. December 11, 2008: -3.68%
43. March 22, 2001: -3.58%
44. February 27, 2007: -3.29%
45. August 14, 2019: -3.05%
46. May 17, 2017: -1.78%
47. April 15, 2013: -1.79%
48. June 6, 2012: -1.84%
49. November 9, 2016: -1.85%
50. August 24, 2015: -1.86%
Note: The percentage changes are based on the closing values of the DJIA on the respective dates. The data above is compiled from historical records of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
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Good morning, good afternoon or good evening. I'm going to drink a little bit out of my dad cup, because we're going to call this episode, dad. I don't care if you're 100 or 10 and everything in between. I'm talking especially to those of you who are well, they haven't seen the markets jump around, or you've forgotten about the markets jumping around. Those of you who are in your 30s, 40s and 50s, especially who behave like AOC, you know that Congresswoman that says things like we've never seen this before. Or if you're a writer for The Wall Street Journal who did a pretty dirty deed, described this as one of the worst routes in the stock market history, hogwash. I want to give you some context. My mother and father were born in 1915 My grandfather was born in the 1860s I was born in the 1950s now the 13th a 16th Amendment came out in 1913 just before we had World War One. And my father went through all that, and my mother, my mother and father experienced a big Spanish flu. Can you say Spanish? Yeah, you can. I was born in 1958 the year of the second wholesale rewrite of the tax code. I started in this business as an investment advisor and wealth advisor and manager. Well, October 1, 1986 that was the day of the Tax Reform Act that went into effect, courtesy of Tip O'Neill and Ronald Reagan, when Republicans and Democrats could get along. You know, right after I started, we had a big thing happen on October 19, 1987 something called, well, Black Monday. Now I'm going to talk to you a little bit about what happened today, but first, I want to give you some context, and I want to give you a lot of advice here. And before I do that, I'm gonna drop a little disclaimer in here. And here it is, you
2:07
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2:37
Okay, let's get started. The biggest one day drop in the stock market was October 19, 1987 in one day, the stock market dropped 22.61% now we're going to talk about percentages. We're not going to talk about dollar amounts. We're not going to talk about points. We're going to talk about percentages, because that's where the rubber meets the road. Now we've never seen something like what happened today? Well, I don't know about that, on March 16 in the year 2021, day drop 12.93% I want you to think about how much the market has grown, and various other instruments have grown, stocks, bonds, real estate, etc, in the last, oh, four to five years. But I also want you to know that when the stock market dropped in 1987 October 19, at the end of the year, stock market was actually positive. You see all of the Chicken Littles out there, the lemmings that follow the Pied Pipers in the mainstream. I call it lame stream media. They don't want you to know that. Remember, if it bleeds, it leads, beer cells next, october 28 1929 market dropped 12.82% october 29 1929 it dropped 11.73% those are two bad days being a market. Oh, Paul, that was so long ago. What about March 12? 20, 29.99% Oh. And then a few days later, like I told you, March 16, 12.93% and I remember back then, every single person was saying, the world's going to end. Oh, my God, didn't end. Did it? It didn't end. There's something that comes from education experience and having a whole lot of well, calm, cool, collected experience, really does? You know, like having a dad. Oh, but it's different this time. They probably said that on November 6, 1929 when the market dropped 9.92% or on December 18, 1899 when it dropped 8.72% my grandfather probably lost his mind back then. He probably took everything out of the market. Put everything in a bucket, buried that bucket in the back of the farm, and said, You know what? We're going to wait for a whole long later, and we're going to dig that money up. August 12, 1932, 8.4% these are all negatives. How about March 14? 1907, oh, long time ago. 8.29% down. Oh, yeah. Remember I talked earlier? The biggest drop, the biggest drop when I say that was, Oh, that's right, October 19, 1987 down. 22.61% and the 10th largest was october 26 1987 it dropped another 8.4% Chicken Little Chicken Little Chicken Little run for the hill. Sell everything, because everything is going to blow up. Headlines are going to get you. They're going to make you in the poor house. If you keep following the headlines, you're going to go to the poor house. You know, I worked on the election of a fellow by name of Gerald Ford. I was a Reagan guy. I was a member of the Young Americans for freedom, and back in the 70s, my guy was, well, Ronald Reagan, when Reagan didn't get the nomination for the Republicans back in 1976 Well, we went ahead and we worked our tails off for Ford. We almost beat Carter, but wasn't in the cards. Carter got it. But here's the thing, when Reagan then defeated Carter and became president of the United States, it's 1980 and his eight years, one of the things he said when he was at the Berlin Wall, he said, If not us, who, if not. Now, when I'm going to repeat that, Reagan said, if not us, who, if not. Now, when a lot of this, everybody's blaming on Donald Trump, oh, tariff says tariffs that everything's going to fall apart. Well, yeah, Gomer, things are going to cost a little bit more as we begin to ramp up manufacturing the United States. Because, ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, peace. Peace is an anomaly. Always has been, always will be. And while Eisenhower warned us in his farewell address about the military industrial complex, well, guess what it is? What it is, if you want to be at peace, you gotta have a heck of a military and the reality is, yeah, things have gotten out of control. Oh, but let's tear up every Tesla we ever get our hands on, because, oh, Elon Musk is bad. The people doing that, they're paid. A lot of them are just paid. These are paid agitators by all these democratic wackadoodles out there who don't care about you and I. They want the status quo. They want to line their pockets. Oh, but Trump is lining his pockets, folks. Let me make it really clear to you, if you have a chance, go study Grover, Cleveland, first Democrat to be elected to the presidency of the United States. Okay, after Reconstruction, read about him and read about how he became president and what his primary focus was. Read all about Tammany Hall. Read about all about the spoil system. Read about how bureaucrats were running everything and damn near making it go broken. Read about the tariff system back then. I'm serious. You know you may not like it, but tariffs work because these other countries are being subsidized by their governments, and they're doing tariffs against us so well, Hell's Bells. What's good for the goose is good for the gander, but not if you hate Trump. October 15, 2008 down, 7.87% july 21 1933 down 7.84% hey, here's another one. March 9, 2020, down 7.79% but wait a minute. Wait a minute. Today was the worst day ever. No Another one was October 18, 1937 October again, down 7.5% Hey, how about this one? Do you remember 2008 well, on December 1, 2008 That's right. December 1 down 7.7% How about October 9, 2008 That's right. Boys and girls, down 7.33% and we were all crying. We were all saying, Oh, the whole world's going to end now. You're sitting back right now going, Oh, Paul, this time is different. It's different. I can't believe you're saying that I've lost so much money. Well, if you've lost so much money, that means you didn't have enough cash. That means you were overly invested. You may have had an investment advisor who's working assets under management. Had you overly invested? Well, good luck with that. Do you have enough cash to go into the market now, when it's down, are you going to punt when everything's down, you see it's called buy low, sell high, buy low, sell high, not sell low and buy high. That's the opposite of what you want to do. And the reality is, most investors. Is pretty substantially underperformed the indexes, because you panic and you have investment advisors, managers of monies in their 20s, 30s, 40s and 50s, who don't have the experience to go, yeah, here we go again. What we gonna do? Well, sometimes you can do the Muhammad Ali the do the rope a dope. Do you know who Muhammad Ali is. Do you know who Joe Frazier is? Do you know who George Foreman is? Do you know what the battle in Manila is? Do you know the the Congo, or wherever it was, of the Rumble in the Jungle? Do you know what the rope a dope is? Oh, let's continue. So wait. I left off with October 9, 2008 7.33 How about February 1? 1917 war down. 7.24% Hey, how about this one? October 27 1997 the whole world's on fire. Everything's going to end down 7.18% we're now at the 18th level started out when I started in the business. 1987 Okay, and we're working our way down. Number 19 is October 5. 1932 7.15% when the market reopened after 911 on September 17, 2001 Oh, no, down, 7.13% look, I'm having a little fun with this, because I enjoy these kinds of things, and I realize the overwhelming majority of the people who are watching this have checked out a long time ago, too long, didn't read, didn't Watch, didn't view, that's okay, oh. June 11, 2020, down 6.9% August, 31 1998 down 6.37% September, 24 1931 down 6.35%
but Paul, but Paul today was the worst in the world. Well, yeah, okay, it wasn't such a good day. If you go back from 19, from 2020, to today. But let's look at it a little bigger. Oh, but global warming in the last 100 years? Oh, we don't even have good statics, but statistics. But in the last 20 or 30 years, we're going to burn or we're going to what are we doing? Are we going to burn up? Are we going to freeze? We're going to have a lot of change. Just remember, Mr. Green genes, a fellow by name of Al Gore, screwed you and I because he started a movement, this green movement. And so when you have people that take very narrow data sets, when the world has been around for a long, long time, and oh, but we're destroying everything, but we're going to take a blind eye to India and China. You see where I'm going with this. I feel sometimes like George Carlin. I mean, we need a George Carlin, gosh darn. I wish he hadn't died. My favorite comedian, okay, March 18, 2020, down, 6.3% we're at number 24 How about September? 29 2008 6.98 How about october 22 2008 down 5.69% oh, wait a minute, we're coming up on number 27 let's see. Today is Thursday, April 3, 2025 we're down 5.6% and we're at number 27 the 27th largest one day drop in the stock market was today. Today. Oh, 27th you know, if you're the 27th best basketball player trying out for a basketball team, you ain't getting none. Okay, you ain't getting none. I mean, this is bad, but is it that bad? Well, we'll see what happens. Oh, but Paul, the market's been down bad all year. Yeah, things can you know, I got news for you when I work out and lift weights, and I've been lifting weights now, let's see. Let me think about this. I have been lifting weights for 55 years, 55 years, and you know what I remember 55 years ago, when I first started bench pressing on my back porch and learning how to curl and doing presses and all that kind of stuff, had a straight bar. Didn't have a curl bar, didn't have all the different things, man, I was tired as a punk kid. That's tired. And all the neighborhood kids came around. Hey, Paul's got a weight bench and weight set and everything else. You know what? I'm in my 60s, and when I hit lift weights, I get tired, and I gotta sit down and rest. You know what? I went jogging this morning, and I don't run like I used to do a lot of walking, little bit of jogging, no running. Kind older. I'm an old guy. Got bad knees, you know what? When I got done, I had I worked up a sweat. I sat down, relaxed for a minute, cool down, took a shower. Hmm, you see the cycle we're doing here, number 27 hey, let's take a look at number 28 let's keep on going. November 20, 2008 5.56 October, 27 2000 Eight, 5.41 September 17, 2008 4.96 man, 2008 was bad. Oh, that's right, that's when we all got screwed, because Congress said, if you can fog a mirror, you gotta give somebody a loan. Dei galore. Dei galore, yeah, had a fellow by name of Barney Frank and his cohort in the Senate passed laws that, basically, banks and everybody else had to give loans. Hmm, let's see. So back in the day, if I'm a bank, what I did is I would underwrite you. Are you good enough to get a loan? And if I underwrote you and then I gave you the money. We kept that loan at the bank. And one of the things your bank president and your branch managers would do is they drive by your house and look at it, make sure that it was maintained properly. If not, they pick up the phone and call us, hey, you know, Jethro, we need to have a conversation. And you'd come by and say, house looks pretty rough there, boy, you got to get this thing cleaned up. You know, we're holding the note on this thing. That's the way it used to be. But see, what did we do? We had to securitize things. What does that mean? Well, you get a whole bunch of people, and they want loans, and if they can fog a mirror, we're going to give them money. They are not qualified for peanuts to get a loan, but that's okay. That's okay. We're gonna get them that loan, and then what we gonna do? We gonna hold that loan. Oh, no, no, no. Uh, banks and mortgage companies are now in the business of bundling. That's right, we're gonna bundle all this garbajo beans together, put them all together, and then we're gonna turn it into a collateralized mortgage obligation. Oh, that sounds really good. Collateralized mortgage obligation. We're gonna create these things called tranches. That's a fancy French word. That's what we're gonna do. And then we're gonna bundle them up as mutual funds and exchange traded funds. Back in the day, those are mutual funds. Then we're gonna do is we're gonna sell those to the consumer, and what the consumer doesn't buy? Well, hails, bills, we're managing a pension, and we're managing a whole bunch of different monies, and we'll put them in there, because it's okay. We're now getting fees for assets under management. We got fees. We created the product. Hey, we just got a whole lot of money, and we're calling it this fancy thing, and at the wheel was, let's see a whole bunch of people at the Treasury and Federal Reserve and in the White House. Oh, yeah, they're asleep at the wheel. Yeah, everything's fine. Nothing to see here. Don't worry about it, yeah. So Bernanke and, man, all those people, all of them, bunch of dirt bags. Okay? All of them. So that's what was going on. 2008 and I hope you kept your money in that tin can in the backyard, because, man, oh man, you the market's going to go to hell in a hand basket. You know that right? October 9, 2007 4.91% August 10, 2011 4.61% February 5, 2018 down, 4.6% How about again? August 8, 2011 four point what? Three 1% not quite April's fool, but on April 14, 2,004.16% folks, I'm telling you, it's been rough. Oh, we've never seen it this rough. I'm at number 36 October 13, 1989 down, 4.02% I'm not done. I'm not done. April, 3, 2005 3.98% How about June, 24, night, 2016 September, 13, 2022 October, 19, 1989 How about August 4, 2011 How about December? The 11th, 2008 March, 22 2001 February. 27 2000 August. 14, 2019 May, 17, 2017 april 15, 2013 these are all periods where we lost 3% now we're in 1.78 1.79 1.84
look the 50th largest drop was on August 24 2015 1.8% and if you go back and look at the headlines, on August 25 2015 Chicken Little oh my god, the world's going to fall apart. And a lot of these people who are in political office, think about this. Think about it. They were kids. See, a lot of folks haven't experienced a lot of the problems we have out there. I have, I have, you know, the first day I started in law enforcement back in the 1970s one of the first calls we got was to back up a bunch of officers. It was a massive fight at a county fair. This is up in Wisconsin, and I got there and I earned my stripes day one, and I had, well, I got into the brawl, and my left knee was so tore up. It looked like someone took a. Uh oh, gosh, it's okay. They took a wire brush and just scraped everything, and I got a whole lot of scars on there. Probably the first time I busted my kneecap hurt like all all Dickens. I'm glad I hurt my knee, because I didn't realize what was sticking out of the left side of my left leg. Yeah, left side of my left leg. We're over here. We got done. I'm handcuffed this guy, and he was kind of wrestling around, and I grabbed a hold of him. Big old sergeant. Big boy, now I'm six. Used to be six two. I'm closer to six one. Now I've always weighed about anywhere from 215 to 230 and I'm losing weight and getting thinner intentionally. And this big boy, he was a good 300 pounder. He's a good Wisconsin farm boy. He puts his hand on my shoulder and says, Son, you feeling okay? Yeah. Damn. What a way to start start. The job goes well. Why you come over here and sit down? So why? He said, Don't look down, son. He said, But he got you've been stabbed. Well, what do you do? I look down one damn. I got a knife sticking on my leg. So I walk over and sat down, and he said, You know what? Sit like. You're a girl riding a horse, and get in the car. We're gonna take you over to the dock. And he literally took me and got me stitched up. Doc pulled the damn thing out. And he said, Why didn't you pull this out? I don't know. He told me to sit here. Yeah, you'll be fine. Got stitched up, put a band aid on the thing, went back to the station, worked out my shift, filled out the forms, came back to work next day, yeah, didn't take time off and do all those tetanus shot things and everything else. Oh, I'm not saying that this was the way it was. Is good, but that, ladies and gentlemen, was my day one, oh man, I had a black guy. My lips were all busted. We we beat the dog out of them, and they beat the dog out of us. Cool. Now, if that was your first day in the job, you probably quit. Most people quit. When I worked in law enforcement, I had a short period of time I worked as a field training officer, and I used to take my rookies, and I used to take them out to Dale Mabry, right next to the stadium. And for those of you who remember this, you know, I did it every single your first day. Oh, I would say, how you doing? I would be really nice. Now, some field instructors were really mean to the rookies. Oh, I was not. I'd get a cup of coffee. Oh, I'm going to be your friend. I get you all nice and calm, then I'd get you out on del Mabry. We're heading north. We'd get off on the east side. This is when the old Sam Burro, not the current stadium. And I'd get out and say, Come on, I want to show you something. And you get out all smiley because you're brand new. You got your bad uniform. Looks really good. And I say, now I'm going to show you what this is. And I would be really sarcastic I say now, this is a police car. It's a lot like every other car on the road. Now, those things right there, those are called headlights. And see those yellow things, those them yellow things, Texan coming out. Them yellow things. Those are blinkers. And when you turn it on in the car, it blinks red in the back and yellow in front. Now that big shiny thing that's a bumper. Okay, are you following me and see that thing is all the checker that's a grill. Back in the days, we used to drive dodge diplomats, so damn embarrassing. About that time the rookie would get I just kept doing this. I It always worked. About that time you would hear, yeah, I know. And I'd smile, and my face would then go dead, very vicious looking, and I take my hand my squad car, and I would hit as hard as I could on the hood of the car, and I would scream at them, I'm not going to use the language I use. And I would scream and swear like a maniac, bang, I just got shot. Half the time they would panic, what? Bang, I just got shot again. Where are we? Bang, I got hit again. And then I would say, what are you going to tell my family? Where are we? Only one rookie ever could say we're by the stadium. Everybody else panicked. Look, that would continue, and then I would do my bumper Morgan, and I would get in their face, and I'd be pretty damn mean, and I'd say, you SOB this and everything else. You think you're qualified to work the street. You don't even know where we're at. Turn around and look, we're next to the stadium. We're by Dale Mabry. You're too stupid to get on the radio, too stupid to role play here to know, get in the car and sit down. You get in the car and sit down. And I always drove to pop and Sons sit down. They'd sit down. We'd order something to eat. I don't think any of them ever said they want anything. To eat. They basically had their stomach in their in their throat, I tell the lady, you know, two orders, eggs, hash browns. I like grits, by the way, by the way, grits always take grits, bacon, a cup of coffee. We have a lot of coffee. Bring a pot. Then I said. And I'd be real fatherly again, just like I am tonight. Okay, look, our job is to do what we can do. We ain't gonna say to the world, but we're gonna go home every night, and if somebody gets my back and gets on me, your job is to get them off of me until you can handle yourself on the street. And I'm not gonna have a rookies killed on the street. You understand that. I'm gonna teach you how to fight, I'm gonna teach you how to handle a call, and pretty soon we're going to volunteer for every damn fight call we get, because as soon as you understand how to fight and what it's all about, then you'll make it. You either quit or you'll make it. Well, I had a couple of guys who walked off the job. We got into fights. Hell's Bells I ain't doing this stuff. Had a young lady beat the Holy hell. She couldn't believe what happened, cried and everything else turned out to be one of the best cops ever had. I gotta tell you what. Here's the thing, don't panic. Stock market goes up and stock market goes down. Presidents come and presidents go, members of Congress, MS, obese, whatever, and somebody's actually getting rid of the dead weight and cut in the bureaucracy, the media. Remember the lame L, A, M, E, the lame stream media, if it bleeds it leads, bad news always sells, but if you're going to govern your life based upon that, you're a damn fool. Yeah, maybe we have a rough year. Maybe we have some tariffs, maybe cars and a bunch of things cost more. But if you're living on the edge, well, there's only three things in the world. Well, four, actually you can do make more, spend less, adjust your expectations, or do a combination of the four, you'll make it. People are not starving in this country. This isn't Uganda. It's not the Congo. We don't have a bunch of Islamists running around with rifles shooting everybody. And yes, Biden, hey, Biden's gone. So you can speak your mind, say whatever you want. You can say Trump is the dumbest guy on the face of the earth. But I'm going to ask you this, if not us, who, if not now, when, and are you that selfish that you don't give a damn about your children and grandchildren? I'm a dad. I do so with that, I hope you understand what the purpose of this is, chill out. There's a lot of opportunities to make money when the market goes down. You got cash. Winner, winner. Chicken dinner with that tip, a new Tyler, too. I'm out here later by
27:29
this concludes the Paul Truesdell podcast. However, before you go see the show notes for this podcast, for special offers in person and online events and a variety of booklets on a wide variety of investment income, estate, risk and overall wealth issues to schedule a conversation with Team Truesdell text or call, 352-612-1000, the Paul Truesdell podcast is available on nearly all podcast players, such as Apple, Google, Spotify, as well as on Paul's personal website, Paul truesdell.com
28:07
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28:19
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28:33
Waiter. Waiter, Phil, did you have a season four service? I'm going to call a manager. Take it easy. Walt, what's mostly wrong is your grout. I'm sorry, Phil, but my digestion is so upset. What you may need for your poor digestion is something that works after nature's own order, try Carter's little liver pill. Good advice, when your digestion is upset and you feel headache and irritable, take Carter's little liver pills. You see each day, nature normally produces about two pints of a vital digestive juice to help digest your food. If nature fails, your food may remain undigested, leaving you headachy and irritable. To feel cheerful and happy again, take Carter's little liver pills. They increase the flow of this vital digestive juice quickly, often in as little as 30 minutes, and you're on the road to feeling better. Don't depend on artificial aids to counteract indigestion when Carter's little liver pills aid digestion after nature's own order, take Carter's little liver pills as directed. Get them at any drugstore. Only 25 like to start with a list of people I can do without a proctologist with poor depth perception,
29:46
any woman whose hobby is breast feeding zoo animals, a cross eyed nun with a bull whip and a bottle of gin, a waitress with a visible infection on her serving hand. And any man whose arm hair completely covers his wrist watch. Okay, That's enough of that You
Transcribed by https://otter.ai