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Ukraine War

1 North Korean Troop Deployment to Russia

Recent reports suggest the possibility of North Korean troops being deployed to Russia to support the war in Ukraine. While these claims are not yet confirmed, they have attracted significant attention, particularly from South Korean intelligence. South Korea is not known for spreading false information, and their involvement in circulating this report adds a layer of credibility that demands attention. Should North Korean troops actually engage in combat, this would be the first instance of such involvement since the Korean War in 1953, making this a historic and unprecedented development. For military planners in the U.S. and South Korea, the deployment of North Korean troops presents a rare opportunity to observe how these forces function in a modern combat environment. Given the lack of combat experience among North Korean forces, their performance could offer vital intelligence that might reshape strategic planning for the Korean Peninsula. Additionally, the presence of North Korean troops on the front lines could have broader geopolitical ramifications, signaling a deepening of the alliance between Pyongyang and Moscow. Such a development would complicate existing security dynamics in East Asia, necessitating a reassessment of military preparedness and intelligence-gathering efforts. This evolving situation highlights the importance of vigilance in monitoring North Korean military activities, particularly in light of the potential for future conflicts on the peninsula.

2 North Korean and Iranian Support for Russia

North Korea’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict extends beyond the potential deployment of troops. Reports indicate that North Korea has been supplying Russia with ballistic missiles and artillery shells, although the effectiveness of these weapons is questionable. Many of the shells appear to be defective, with a significant portion reportedly causing damage to Russian forces themselves. This highlights the substandard quality of North Korean military hardware, which, while plentiful, lacks the reliability of Western or Russian-manufactured arms. Iran’s contribution to Russia’s war effort is also notable, with over 1,000 Shaheed drones deployed to assist Russian forces in Ukraine. These drones have become a key element of Russia’s aerial warfare strategy. This situation presents a significant opportunity for intelligence gathering. For the U.S. and its allies, understanding the limitations of North Korean and Iranian weapons could provide critical insights into Russia’s battlefield vulnerabilities. There is also a strategic angle for Israel. Given its close proximity to Iran and its history of military responses to Iranian provocations, Israel could seize this moment to launch a retaliatory strike, potentially targeting the facilities where the Shaheed drones are produced. If successful, this strike would not only cripple a key element of Russia’s war machine but also weaken Iran’s military capabilities, thereby enhancing Israel’s own security in the region.

3 Russia’s Growing Reliance on Foreign Support

Russia’s increasing reliance on military supplies from countries like North Korea and Iran underscores a concerning decline in its domestic military industrial complex. Traditionally one of the world’s largest arms manufacturers, Russia is now struggling to produce enough high-quality weapons to sustain its ongoing military operations in Ukraine. This shift toward dependence on less technologically advanced nations signals a broader weakness in Russia’s defense sector. The quality of military supplies from North Korea, as seen with their faulty artillery shells, and from Iran, while useful, pales in comparison to what Russia would have once produced domestically or sourced from more advanced allies. This vulnerability presents an opportunity for Russia’s adversaries. Countries like the U.S., Israel, and South Korea could potentially exploit these weaknesses by targeting the supply chains or production facilities in North Korea and Iran. Disrupting these critical lifelines could severely hamper Russia’s ability to continue its war effort. Furthermore, this growing reliance on foreign support reflects poorly on Russia’s long-term military strategy. With its industrial base in decline and its military technology lagging, Russia may find itself increasingly isolated, both economically and militarily, as other nations take advantage of its diminished capabilities. This situation could further erode Russia’s influence on the global stage, leading to greater challenges in maintaining its geopolitical ambitions.

4 Involvement of South Korea and Israel in the Ukraine Conflict

Both South Korea and Israel have traditionally focused on their own regional security issues, but recent developments suggest they may be drawn further into the Ukraine conflict. South Korea, one of the world’s top arms exporters, has already proven its ability to mass-produce military hardware, including tanks, artillery, and rocket systems. South Korea’s military industry is highly advanced, capable of producing weapons that rival those of Western countries like the United States, Germany, and France, but at a lower cost, making them an attractive option for countries like Ukraine. In contrast, Israel is a leader in defense technology, particularly in missile defense systems like the Iron Dome, which has proven highly effective in intercepting incoming rockets and artillery. However, Israel lacks the production capacity of South Korea and has historically been reluctant to get deeply involved in conflicts beyond its immediate region. Nevertheless, Israel’s expertise in missile defense could be invaluable to South Korea in the event of a conflict with North Korea, where missile and artillery attacks would likely be a central component of any military engagement. The potential for strategic cooperation between South Korea and Israel could be a game-changer, not only for the Ukraine conflict but also for the broader Western alliance. By combining South Korea’s production capacity with Israel’s technological expertise, the two nations could significantly bolster Ukraine’s defense capabilities and shift the balance of power in the ongoing conflict with Russia. This collaboration could also strengthen ties within the Western alliance, creating new opportunities for coordinated military and defense initiatives across multiple fronts.

If the reports about North Korean troop deployments to Russia are confirmed, the geopolitical ramifications for the United States would extend beyond the immediate conflict in Ukraine and could significantly affect domestic safety, national defense policies, and the U.S. military-industrial complex. From a national security perspective, North Korea’s involvement in a conflict that pits it alongside Russia could escalate tensions globally, particularly in East Asia, where the U.S. maintains significant military commitments. The presence of North Korean troops on a Russian battlefield would signify a deepening of the Pyongyang-Moscow alliance, a strategic partnership that could pose direct threats to U.S. interests and those of its allies.

Domestically, this development could heighten concerns over national security, especially given North Korea’s history of nuclear weapons development and its volatile leadership under Kim Jong Un. The perception of North Korea becoming more militarily engaged in global conflicts would likely increase anxiety in the U.S. population regarding potential threats to American safety, potentially spurring calls for more robust defense measures. This would pressure the U.S. government to invest in both homeland security and military readiness, particularly with a focus on missile defense and cyber defense, as North Korea has demonstrated capabilities in both areas.

In terms of national defense, the U.S. would need to reassess its strategic priorities in the Indo-Pacific region, where North Korea has long been a central threat. The potential combat experience that North Korean troops may gain in Ukraine, even in limited capacities, could improve their military capabilities, making them a more formidable opponent in the future. This would prompt the U.S. to increase its support for South Korea and Japan, both of whom rely on U.S. military backing to deter North Korean aggression. Joint military exercises, intelligence-sharing agreements, and the deployment of advanced U.S. weapon systems in the region could become more frequent and necessary.

Additionally, the U.S. might need to increase its military presence in East Asia, particularly on the Korean Peninsula, to counter any perceived threats arising from a North Korean military that has gained experience from its involvement in Ukraine. Strengthening alliances with South Korea, Japan, and other Pacific partners would be crucial for ensuring regional stability and countering North Korean and Russian influence.

The potential involvement of North Korea in the Ukraine conflict could also lead to an increase in global defense spending, as countries aligned against Russia and North Korea seek to bolster their military capabilities. For the U.S. military-industrial complex, this could be a boon, as demand for advanced weapons systems, missile defense technologies, and surveillance equipment would likely increase. The U.S. defense industry could experience a surge in orders, both from the U.S. government and from allied nations like South Korea, Japan, and European NATO members.

This heightened demand for military hardware and defense technologies would benefit U.S. defense contractors, who are already seeing increased interest in products such as missile defense systems, drones, and precision-guided munitions. The U.S. military-industrial complex, which plays a crucial role in maintaining the country’s defense capabilities, would be called upon to meet the rising needs for both U.S. forces and allied militaries seeking to counter threats from the Russia-North Korea alliance.

In summary, if North Korean troops are indeed deployed to Russia, the United States would face significant geopolitical consequences, particularly in terms of national defense and domestic safety. The need to bolster military readiness in East Asia would lead to increased defense spending, both domestically and internationally, while the U.S. military-industrial complex would likely experience a surge in demand for its products and services. At the same time, the U.S. would need to deepen its alliances with regional partners to ensure stability and deter further aggression from North Korea and its allies.

Drawing parallels between the World War II Axis and Allied powers and the current dynamics of the Russian-Ukraine war reveals striking similarities in the alignment of global powers and the potential trajectory of future conflicts. In World War II, the Axis powers—Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy, and Imperial Japan—formed a coalition of authoritarian regimes seeking territorial expansion and global dominance. These powers were eventually confronted by the Allies, led by the United States, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom, who were united in their defense of global stability and democracy.

In the context of the Russian-Ukraine war, we see an emerging parallel between modern authoritarian regimes and their global aspirations. Russia, under Vladimir Putin, has sought to reassert its influence in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet territories, much like Nazi Germany’s attempts to reclaim lost lands and expand its empire. Alongside Russia, nations like North Korea and Iran have aligned themselves either directly or indirectly, contributing military aid or strategic resources, reminiscent of how Japan and Italy supported Germany’s ambitions during World War II. These nations are not as technologically advanced as Russia, much like Italy and Japan were considered technologically inferior to Nazi Germany, yet they serve as critical support in the larger conflict.

On the other side, Ukraine represents the modern equivalent of a nation caught in the early stages of Axis aggression—like Poland or Czechoslovakia—facing invasion and occupation by a more powerful aggressor. The United States, NATO, and key European powers, such as the UK and France, have provided substantial support to Ukraine, drawing a clear parallel to the Allied coalition’s efforts to supply and support nations resisting Axis expansion. Just as the United States initially hesitated to enter direct combat in World War II, focusing instead on providing material aid through programs like Lend-Lease, it has similarly limited its involvement in Ukraine to indirect support, including arms shipments, intelligence sharing, and economic sanctions against Russia.

However, history suggests that indirect involvement can often escalate into direct conflict. In World War II, the U.S. was eventually drawn into the war after the attack on Pearl Harbor, despite its initial efforts to avoid direct engagement. Similarly, the current geopolitical situation has the potential to escalate as Russia continues its aggressive tactics, North Korea and Iran offer more explicit military support, and the broader international community becomes more entangled in the conflict.

Your forecast, predicting an 85% chance of the United States being drawn into direct armed conflict, seems plausible based on several key factors. First, the increasing involvement of U.S. allies—such as Poland, the Baltic states, and potentially South Korea and Israel—heightens the risk of a broader military confrontation. Russia’s continued reliance on external support from countries like North Korea and Iran not only risks expanding the geographic scope of the war but also intensifies the geopolitical stakes for the U.S. and its allies. In this scenario, as in World War II, aggression by authoritarian regimes could lead to a broader coalition of democracies mobilizing for direct intervention.

Moreover, if Russia escalates the conflict by targeting NATO members, either intentionally or through miscalculation, the U.S. would be obligated to respond due to NATO’s Article 5, which treats an attack on one member as an attack on all. This mutual defense pact mirrors the alliance systems that drew countries into global conflict during World War II. Any Russian aggression toward NATO forces in Eastern Europe, whether in the form of missile strikes or incursions into NATO territory, would almost certainly trigger a direct U.S. military response.

Additionally, the military-industrial capabilities of the U.S. and its allies—similar to the vast industrial power of the Allied nations in World War II—would be activated in full force. The U.S. military-industrial complex is already experiencing increased demand for advanced weaponry, such as missile defense systems and drones, driven by both the Ukraine war and growing global tensions. Should the conflict escalate further, the U.S. would likely see a surge in defense production, as it did during World War II when American industry became the backbone of the Allied war effort.

In summary, the parallels between the current Russia-Ukraine war and the early stages of World War II are concerning, especially when viewed through the lens of expanding alliances, escalating aggression, and the risk of miscalculation. Your prediction of an 85% chance of the United States being drawn into direct conflict is grounded in historical precedent and current geopolitical trends. As tensions rise and alliances solidify, the probability of U.S. involvement increases, potentially transforming this regional conflict into a larger, more globalized war, much like World War II.

The Multifaceted Complexity of Intelligence Operations in the United States and Its Allies

Intelligence operations in the modern world represent one of the most intricate and essential components of national security for the United States and its allies. The complexity of intelligence gathering, analysis, and operational execution stems from the diverse range of threats—both conventional and asymmetric—that modern states face. These threats span from traditional military adversaries to non-state actors like terrorist organizations, cyber criminals, and foreign governments engaging in covert operations.

The operations of U.S. intelligence agencies, such as the CIA, NSA, and FBI, must address threats on both domestic and international fronts, and the sheer scope of these operations involves collaboration across multiple countries. U.S. allies, including the Five Eyes network (comprising the U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia, and New Zealand), play a crucial role in sharing intelligence and resources. International intelligence cooperation, however, brings its own set of challenges, as information sharing between sovereign states can be hindered by conflicting interests, bureaucratic inertia, and concerns over espionage.

At the heart of these operations are thousands of individuals working to ensure national security. Intelligence personnel operate under various umbrellas, with some engaged in HUMINT (human intelligence), SIGINT (signals intelligence), and CYBINT (cyber intelligence), among other specialized fields. Their work is not only confined to the well-known intelligence agencies, but extends into defense sectors, law enforcement, and private contractors, creating a vast ecosystem that supports the overall intelligence apparatus.

Estimating the Workforce Involved in Intelligence, National Defense, and Security

1.  Intelligence Industry: It is estimated that around 100,000 to 150,000 people are directly employed by U.S. intelligence agencies, including the CIA, NSA, DIA, FBI, and other branches. This number does not include indirect support from contractors, research institutions, and private firms that work closely with the intelligence community. Adding these indirect contributors could push the total number to approximately 300,000 to 500,000 individuals involved in some aspect of intelligence operations.
2.  National Defense: The national defense apparatus in the United States, including active military personnel, civilian employees of the Department of Defense, and defense contractors, is much larger. The U.S. military has roughly 1.3 million active-duty personnel and another 800,000 reservists, with about 750,000 civilians working for the Department of Defense. The defense industry, which includes companies like Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman, employs an additional 3 million people, making the total workforce connected to national defense approximately 5 million people.
3.  All Security (Public and Private): Expanding the scope to include the broader security sector, which involves private security firms, cybersecurity professionals, and federal, state, and local government security roles, the number grows significantly. The private security industry alone employs over 1 million people in the U.S. Cybersecurity professionals account for another 700,000, while federal and local law enforcement agencies employ roughly 900,000 officers and administrative personnel. Combining these numbers, the broader security industry employs close to 3 million people.
4.  Law Enforcement: U.S. law enforcement includes federal, state, and local levels, encompassing agencies like the FBI, DEA, ATF, state police, and local police departments. In total, there are roughly 900,000 law enforcement officers in the U.S. when factoring in all levels, along with several hundred thousand more support staff, pushing the total number closer to 1.2 million people employed in law enforcement roles.
5.  Global Estimate: When expanding these numbers globally, the workforce involved in intelligence, defense, and security increases dramatically. NATO countries and other allies, such as Japan, South Korea, and Israel, employ millions in defense and security roles. Globally, the intelligence industry likely employs 1 million people directly or indirectly, with defense and military personnel exceeding 20 million worldwide, and the broader security industry adding another 10 million. In total, globally, there are likely around 30 to 35 million people employed in some capacity in intelligence, defense, security, and law enforcement.


The Importance of Human Intelligence and Electronic Surveillance

In the modern world, intelligence operations require a delicate balance between human intelligence (HUMINT) and electronic surveillance. While technological advancements have allowed for unprecedented levels of data collection through SIGINT, cyber surveillance, and satellite monitoring, boots-on-the-ground intelligence remains indispensable. There are nuances in human behavior, motivations, and situational awareness that can only be captured by agents embedded in critical areas of interest. Human sources provide firsthand accounts, interpretations, and subtle cues that even the most sophisticated surveillance systems can miss.

However, HUMINT and electronic surveillance complement each other. The data collected electronically often provides leads that HUMINT assets can investigate, while human agents can provide context that enhances the interpretation of digital information. In the Ukraine-Russia conflict, for example, both on-the-ground intelligence and signals intelligence have been crucial in predicting Russian military moves and understanding the broader geopolitical strategies at play.

The integration of both these forms of intelligence gathering is essential for creating a comprehensive view of a situation, allowing for real-time decision-making that is critical for national security.

China’s Infiltration of the United States: A Complex Threat

One of the greatest modern challenges to U.S. intelligence and national security is China’s thorough infiltration into multiple facets of American life. Unlike the former Soviet Union, which relied heavily on covert operations and espionage during the Cold War, China has employed a far more sophisticated and pervasive approach. Leveraging its economic power, educational exchanges, and technology partnerships, China has embedded itself deeply within U.S. institutions, ranging from academia to the business sector and government. Chinese espionage operations have targeted everything from cutting-edge research and intellectual property to sensitive defense technologies and critical infrastructure.

China’s open use of “soft power” and influence operations, combined with more traditional espionage, creates a multifaceted threat. Beijing has established networks within American universities through Confucius Institutes, which are often accused of being tools for promoting Chinese propaganda and monitoring Chinese students and scholars. Additionally, Chinese companies with close ties to the government, such as Huawei, have been accused of using technology as a Trojan horse for espionage.

The biggest difficulty the U.S. faces in combating China’s infiltration is the openness of American society. The United States, with its democratic ideals and open economy, allows free movement of people and ideas—values that China exploits. China, on the other hand, is a closed society where the Communist Party exercises tight control over information and access, making it extremely difficult for U.S. intelligence agencies to penetrate effectively. The asymmetry in openness creates a significant challenge for the U.S. in defending against Chinese influence while maintaining its own democratic principles.

Future Retaliation Against Chinese Interference

Given the scope of China’s interference in U.S. domestic affairs, it is only a matter of time before an American administration decides to take significant retaliatory action. This could manifest in various ways, ranging from sanctions and trade restrictions to more covert actions aimed at disrupting China’s intelligence networks and economic interests. Proxy conflicts, akin to what is unfolding in Ukraine, could become a strategy of choice, allowing the U.S. to undermine China’s global ambitions without direct military confrontation.

However, any direct confrontation or retaliation would require the American public to be more aware of the extent of Chinese influence within the United States. This is where the notion of a “Manchurian candidate” becomes relevant. Sarcastically, one could suggest that with the level of Chinese infiltration into business, academia, and even some political circles, we may already have Chinese assets influencing policy at high levels. While this may sound like a paranoid exaggeration, the reality is that China’s ability to exert influence covertly has raised legitimate concerns about compromised officials in sensitive positions.

The public’s awareness and scrutiny of politicians, business leaders, and influential figures will be crucial in safeguarding the country’s interests. The danger lies in underestimating the depth of China’s strategy, which goes beyond mere espionage to include shaping the very policies and cultural perceptions that guide U.S. decision-making. At some point, retaliation is not only necessary but inevitable, and the American public must be prepared to understand the full scope of the challenge posed by Chinese infiltration.

In conclusion, while the complexity of modern intelligence operations requires a multifaceted approach involving both human and electronic methods, the unique challenges posed by China’s infiltration into the U.S. present a distinct and urgent threat. As the U.S. continues to navigate these waters, it will become increasingly clear that strong, decisive action—whether directly or through proxies—will be necessary to safeguard national security and protect against foreign influence.

When managing a portfolio, especially in today’s complex and volatile global environment, you are far from simply “throwing darts” at potential investments. A do-it-yourself investor must consider a multitude of factors that interact in nuanced and often unpredictable ways. It’s not just about picking stocks or funds; it’s about understanding and anticipating how political, geographical, technological, and economic developments will shape the future performance of individual companies, sectors, and entire economies.

Factors and Resources to Consider:

1.  Macro-Economic Trends: This includes interest rates, inflation, and the broader economic growth or contraction in key markets. Understanding how central banks like the Federal Reserve or the European Central Bank may alter interest rates in response to inflationary pressures is crucial. If inflation is high, bonds may underperform, while real assets like real estate or commodities could see a surge.
2.  Geopolitical Risk: The world today is deeply interconnected, and geopolitical tensions—such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, trade wars between the U.S. and China, or unrest in the Middle East—can have profound impacts on global markets. Investors need to be mindful of how these tensions might affect oil prices, supply chains, or even the regulatory environment for multinational corporations. Ignoring these risks could lead to serious miscalculations in portfolio allocations.
3.  Technological Disruption: The rapid pace of technological change means that industries can be upended overnight. Just look at the impact of companies like Amazon or Tesla. Failing to keep up with advances in artificial intelligence, renewable energy, or biotechnology could leave your portfolio lagging behind. However, betting too heavily on high-risk, high-reward tech without understanding the fundamentals could be equally dangerous.
4.  Sectoral and Regional Allocation: Diversifying a portfolio across sectors (technology, healthcare, energy, etc.) and regions (U.S., Europe, Asia) allows for a balance of growth and stability. However, understanding which sectors are likely to outperform based on global trends (e.g., renewable energy in an age of climate change, or healthcare in aging populations) is critical. This is where deep research and experience come into play.
5.  Company Fundamentals: Every stock you consider should be analyzed in terms of its financial health—revenue growth, profitability, debt levels, and cash flow are just some of the factors that determine whether a company is poised for success. For a DIY investor, this means a relentless commitment to poring over earnings reports, SEC filings, and management outlooks, often through the lens of decades of experience in the markets.
6.  Risk Management and Hedging: The markets are inherently unpredictable. Risk management involves more than just diversification; it requires active strategies like using options to hedge positions, holding safe-haven assets like gold, or even keeping a cash reserve for when markets become turbulent. Mitigating downside risk while capturing upside potential is a balancing act that even seasoned professionals find challenging.
7.  Behavioral Factors: Perhaps one of the hardest aspects of managing your own portfolio is overcoming human psychology. Emotional reactions to market volatility—fear when markets drop, greed when they rise—can lead to poor decision-making. A seasoned investor understands that staying disciplined and sticking to a long-term strategy often yields better results than knee-jerk reactions to short-term market movements.

Justifying Changes to a Portfolio

Changes in a portfolio should not be made lightly. Every adjustment should be justified by a thoughtful analysis of the factors above. For example, if the Federal Reserve signals an intention to raise interest rates, you might choose to reduce exposure to interest-rate-sensitive assets like bonds or dividend-paying stocks and increase your allocation to sectors that tend to benefit from a rising rate environment, such as financials. Similarly, if tensions between the U.S. and China escalate, you might adjust your exposure to companies heavily dependent on Chinese manufacturing or consumer markets.

Another justification for portfolio adjustments could be advancements in technology. Let’s say a new technological breakthrough makes electric vehicles (EVs) far cheaper to produce; this could justify reallocating more capital to companies that are positioned to benefit, whether they are in the EV supply chain or in related fields like battery technology.

Ultimately, the goal of managing a portfolio is to allocate capital to the places where you see the greatest potential for returns while managing and mitigating the risks that could derail those returns. The task requires constant research, rigorous analysis, and the ability to make informed decisions in the face of uncertainty. For someone without decades of experience in the markets—without the history of connecting dots between geopolitics, company fundamentals, and macroeconomic trends—the task is daunting and fraught with potential missteps.

The Difficulty for DIY Investors

The truth is that managing your own portfolio requires an exceptional depth of knowledge across multiple domains. It’s not just about knowing how to read financial statements or track stock performance. You must be able to anticipate shifts in global trade patterns, understand how new legislation might impact different industries, and follow how technological disruptions can completely change the competitive landscape in industries that, up until recently, seemed stable.

Consider the amount of experience it takes to properly assess how political issues in one part of the world might ripple through the global economy. For example, understanding the supply chain disruptions caused by COVID-19 or the semiconductor shortages affecting tech and automotive companies requires more than just a passing familiarity with those industries—it demands years of experience and the ability to think critically and outside conventional frameworks.

The complexity is even greater when you factor in the necessity of rejecting conventional wisdom at times. Those who succeed in investing aren’t just thinking outside the box—they’re often thinking in ways that challenge the very existence of the box itself. They position themselves ahead of the curve, identifying where the puck is headed rather than where it is.

For someone who does not have decades of experience in analyzing individual companies, following geopolitical events, understanding technological advances, and predicting market trends, managing a portfolio can feel like an exercise in futility. The risk of being taken advantage of by external forces, market missteps, or being caught off-guard by unforeseen events is far higher without this experience.

If you’re someone looking to invest in your future, it’s critical to understand just how complex the world of portfolio management has become. Making decisions based on superficial analysis or gut feelings can lead to significant losses, especially in today’s uncertain geopolitical and economic landscape. You need experience, deep research, and the ability to connect the dots across multiple dimensions to avoid being taken advantage of when things go wrong—because, let’s be honest, at some point, they will.

If this sounds overwhelming, that’s because it is. But it doesn’t have to be. At Truesdell Wealth, we have the expertise, the insight, and the resources to help you manage your portfolio effectively, so you can focus on the things that matter most to you. Contact us today if you’re interested in learning more about how we can help you navigate this complex world and position yourself to profit—not just survive—when the markets hit turbulence.